
Massive M&A shakeup in AI networking after the bell. Bloomberg reports Marvell $MRVL is in advanced talks to acquire Lumentum $LITE , with an official deal potentially dropping as soon as next week. After-Hours Reaction: ▪️ $MRVL: $229.80 (-8.68% AH, after closing +3.32% at $251.65) ▪️ $LITE: $990.00 (+8.32% AH, after spiking past $1,000 from a $913.95 close) The biggest question on the desk right now: With Lumentum’s CEO confirming earlier this month that their laser capacity is completely sold out through early 2029, why sell the company now? Three practical reasons: 1. Peak Valuation Leverage: $LITE is sitting near an $83B market cap after a massive multi-month run. Management never has more negotiating leverage to command a top-dollar premium than when 70% of customer demand is going unfulfilled. 2. CapEx & Competitive Risk: Scarcity attracts supply. Rivals like Coherent ($COHR) are aggressively doubling Indium Phosphide laser output through 2028. Scaling fabs to meet 2029 backlog takes billions in CapEx and heavy execution risk. 3. Full-Stack Scale: Combining Lumentum’s photonics and Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) with Marvell’s DSPs and custom silicon creates a $300B+ vertically integrated giant capable of going toe-to-toe with $AVGO. One major wrinkle to watch: $NVDA put $2 billion into Lumentum back in March to secure its own optical supply chain. Watch how Jensen reacts to Marvell trying to buy his laser supplier outright.
