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Lucent Trader

Following0Followers (X)517Posts125Likes107
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Good morning Traders ☀️ I want to give you an update on ethereum:native trade. Yesterday I was really convinced that price will sweep me up and then bounces. Turns out I'm still in the trade and we had a really good reaction at the daily close. $BTC is also ranging and If ETH closes above the area of $2,400 - $2,410 I'm betting that we will see $2,500 soon this week and then next station is $2,700. But today is Monday, you never know 😎 #btc #eth #crypto

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Hello Traders 👋🏼 Today I got this swing trade on ethereum:native We got PWL and we reclaim the level I was looking. 👀 Now I'm expecting to see higher levels coming soon. #eth #crypto #btc https://t.co/KXMSTQNpfQ

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The setup in one line: Fed hiking. Oil geopolitical. Yields at 5%. Crypto acting like digital oil. You don’t need a 40-tweet thread. You need a stop and a rule for Monday’s open.

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Nobody went broke taking profits into 5% yields. A lot of accounts will go broke waiting for the “Fed pivot” that Warsh just told you is not the job. Price stability first. Your leverage second. That’s the order now.

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Hot take: Bitcoin ripping after a hawkish hike is not a mystery. When oil is $100 and official inflation is still “elevated,” some capital stops asking “what’s the discount rate” and starts asking “what can’t the Fed print.” That bid is fragile. It’s also real. Trade the level, not the TED Talk.

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$100 oil + 5% yields is not a “risk-on” cocktail. It’s a stress test pretending to be a market. The traders who survive October aren’t the ones calling the next 80 points on ES. They’re the ones who stopped sizing like last year’s QE hangover.

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bitcoin:native | Update I don't want to see price closing below 82k or if it goes I want to see fast recovery. #crypto #BTC https://t.co/x9El5pQ3Rd

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Unpopular opinion: The hike wasn’t the story. The unanimous vote was. 12-0 means nobody on that committee wants to be the dove on the first Warsh hike. That’s how cycles get overtightened. Not with one 25bp. With groupthink.

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The Fed hiked. 10-year at 5%. Dollar over 100. Oil still a $100 problem. Bitcoin over $80k anyway. The asset that was “supposed to die on hikes” just shrugged. If your model still treats BTC like 2022 tech, you’re trading a graveyard.