Pre-market update for U.S. stocks: During the day, a potential resistance level was identified, and we’re now approaching it. Here are three key points to note when considering a short position: 1. This may be a short-term short opportunity. The 67K level mentioned earlier is where I’ll be monitoring—consider taking partial profits if they materialize. 2. If price breaks above the FVG zone without a sharp volume-driven drop forming a large bearish candle, and funding rates become increasingly negative, reduce your position and stand aside. In such a scenario, we must consider the possibility of another upward move toward the 0.66 level, which I view as the final support level for the downtrend to continue. 3. From Monday to Wednesday, macro geopolitical factors often drive sharp volatility—news events can trigger swings of 2,000+ points in either direction. Therefore, manage your position size carefully. Let’s wait and see how the market moves after open. #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading
Holiday Update: The newly released non-farm payrolls data was extremely strong, significantly exceeding market expectations, indicating that the labor market remains robust—this is negative for risk assets. Technically, there’s little change; the market continues to trade in a narrow consolidation range. #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #BTC
US session update: We are indeed seeing a pullback as expected, but whether it will continue smoothly downward remains to be seen. On the macro front, the likelihood of a ceasefire is diminishing as Friday approaches. It may not be an immediate explosion, but rather a quiet continuation. The rebound in oil prices reflects the market’s current sentiment. Particularly, the period after Friday’s close and over the weekend presents a window for volatility. I’m still holding partial short positions. On a smaller time frame, I’ll watch to see if price can reclaim this minor low to form a lower high—if it fails to reclaim it, further downside is likely. Overall, the possibility of a move higher, as mentioned yesterday, is gradually fading. I may look for a small rebound or consider adding a slight additional position. There could be a sudden short spike upward, but as long as there’s no structural breakout above $72K, it remains a sign of weakness. #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading
Market Update: Yesterday, the PPI data released ahead of the FOMC came in significantly higher than expected (a major bearish signal), combined with a hawkish FOMC statement, which naturally led Bitcoin to continue its smooth downward trend. It has now broken below the daily 26 EMA, with no clear support in sight. The probability of a rebound to higher levels is diminishing. The key now is to observe how this upward trendline reacts—whether a rebound occurs. I still hold my short position from last weekend and have not added to it. Many bearish analysts, who went from floating losses to floating profits, seem to have panicked and switched sides, now suggesting prices could head toward $80K. However, I remain consistent with my earlier view: I still don’t see a breakout above $79K; I’m simply waiting to see whether large capital decides to exit before the FOMC. My next step is to add to my short position. If we definitively lose this upward trendline, I believe a significant downward move is likely to follow. #Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptotrading
Weekend Extra: Currently, we’re seeing a rebound from a panic sell-off that hit an uptrend line. To be honest, I’m still inclined to view the established downtrend channel as valid—technically, another new low may still be ahead, suggesting the possibility of a fifth minor wave down. For now, I won’t be initiating long positions. If this is wave four, it has either already ended, or it may rally slightly further toward the 0.618 level. From a funding rate perspective, the sentiment still seems supportive of a modest upside move. If I were the market maker, I’d create the illusion of the uptrend line holding, then push a strong wave four higher, only to break below afterward—luring in excessive short positions—before rallying back up into the channel for consolidation. It’s only Saturday—anything is still possible. Stay cautious: if you’re not in a position, watching the missile fly won’t hurt you. #Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptotrading
Pre-sleep update: Since there’s no clear indication of a double bottom reversal, there’s no reason to initiate a long position. I’ll take profit on half my position and continue holding the short. We’re currently consolidating around 0.66, where many traders might open longs—but I believe we should wait until we reach the previously mentioned ~0.786 level (or even deeper at 0.886) before considering a long entry. If a strong rebound is to occur, a stop-loss below 0.66 is likely to be triggered. Proceed with caution. #Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptotrading
Market quick update: Today's travel was a full day of flying, and so was Bitcoin. Has the big bullish candle of over 10% in one day created a feeling of a bull rebound? Yesterday I mentioned wanting to try adding back short positions, and I made a small attempt at the mentioned 4h FVG. It dropped and then quickly rebounded, so I exited. Until just now landing, there was not much of an entry point, so I quickly check the current market. Daily chart: Yesterday's volume was huge, and today's volume has filled in the FVG. 4h chart: It is temporarily blocked at the 26 EMA. 1h chart: It has now reached a small high point of structural change, but has not yet broken through. And it is approaching 0.618/0.66. Considering the key levels, I think it is possible to try shorting. Place a stop loss above 0.66. Unless it closes with a daily bullish engulfing candle with higher volume. Then I will delay the shorting. Another thing is that this rally is being pulled by the spot market. I don't think this is so-called "snatching chips" accumulation. I think this kind of pull-up is to dump at a higher level. Therefore, this is a risk for left-side shorting. You don't see volume selling, so it can still be pulled up. Don't think that RSI overbought or oversold means a reversal. Extreme one-sided rallies or violent moves are not effective and will become desensitized. It all depends on how much real money the spot market is willing to spend to pull it up to what level. In summary, it is a short position worth trying from a technical perspective, but with low confidence in the game theory. Also, I still maintain the view that 51K is the medium-term target. #Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptotrading