memecoins proved that people want to trade internet culture. they also showed how quickly the fun disappears when the creator’s upside depends on everyone else becoming exit liquidity. a recent analysis of new solana memecoins found that roughly 74% of ordinary buyers lost money, while the best 1% captured 56% of all gains. that is not an inevitable consequence of putting money behind online culture. it is a consequence of the structure. on kash, a creator does not mint a token, receive a hidden allocation and sell it into their community. they create a question and get people totake sides. the creator earns a transparent share of the activity the market generates. when the deadline arrives, an external outcome determines who was right. people can still lose. that is what gives a prediction conviction. but the game is not guessing when insiders will dump. the edge comes from understanding the event and being early and right. memecoins reward the insiders. kash rewards anyone who's right.

prediction markets roundup: - the nba signed partnerships with kalshi and polymarket to make them preferred prediction market exchanges while establishing direct integrity frameworks - kalshi and s&p dow jones indices entered a strategic partnership to develop index-based event contracts - bernstein said prediction markets, derivatives and tokenization are overtaking crypto trading in its outlook for coinbase, robinhood, and circle, projecting prediction markets could generate about $1.7 billion for robinhood by 2028 - kalshi ceo tarek mansour argued prediction markets can police insider trading themselves and pressed for one federal rulebook across all 50 states - kalshi and polymarket hit a record ~$2.7 billion in weekly crypto-contract volume which update stands out most?

yeah there’s this bot called kash. you see people arguing in your feed and instead of just watching you turn the argument into a real money market that lasts 24 hours. how? you just reply to the post, tag the bot, and say which side and how much. where does the money actually sit? excellent question. it never leaves your own wallet. everything settles on solana with your usdc and an ai builds the market in like ten seconds. anyways what are you predicting tonight?

prediction markets roundup - phantom’s crypto wallet began offering us users access to kalshi prediction-market trading directly in-app, expanding retail reach despite the platform’s ongoing lawsuits - robinhood reported surging activity in its bitcoin and gold prediction markets, with some crypto contracts now settling in as little as 15 minutes - draftkings ceo jason robins said the company already operates the no. 3 prediction-market exchange, signaling the sportsbook’s fast rise in event contracts - cftc chairman michael selig announced the agency is monitoring prediction markets for manipulation ahead of the upcoming u.s. midterm elections which update stands out most?

prediction markets roundup - polymarket is reportedly considering an initial public offering and the launch of a native token to fund its future business expansion - google updated its advertising policies with new guidance for prediction-market platforms, setting rules for how kalshi, polymarket, and peers can advertise - the sec approved cboe’s “kpi” binary options tied to corporate metrics for companies including nvidia and tesla - kalshi asked the full sixth circuit to rehear the ruling that let states regulate its sports contracts, citing the cftc’s new swaps proposals and conflicting decisions - prediction markets were highlighted as a growing focus area for institutional adoption at the annual security traders association conference which update stands out most?

i wonder how many EU road regulations the new tesla roadster breaks just in that picture https://t.co/rupOLn67ka

prediction markets roundup - blockchain.‌com applied for cftc licenses to launch event contracts and prediction market products for us retail and institutional users - kalshi hired a former fbi agent to lead anti-money-laundering efforts as it faces mounting scrutiny over manipulation and insider trading - kalshi expanded its small-business hedging push, letting businesses use event contracts to manage weather, travel, and economic risks - an illinois federal judge temporarily blocked the state from enforcing its licensing rules against kalshi and coinbase, finding their sports contracts are likely federally regulated “swaps” which update stands out most?

prediction markets roundup - verifact markets emerged from stealth with a prediction market platform focused on allowing users to trade on disputed historical facts - kalshi launched a new perpetual futures contract tied to the u.s. stock index as part of its expansion beyond event-based prediction markets - polymarket began rolling out "protocol v2," a smart-contract overhaul designed to make it easier to launch new types of markets as it rebuilds its trading infrastructure - kalshi's 15-minute gold markets surpassed its equivalent ether markets in september with 542 million contracts traded and $5 million in generated fees just weeks after launching - draftkings stock jumped after bank of america upgraded it, downplaying competitive threats from prediction markets which update stands out most?

a lot of prediction market resolution fights are lost the moment the market is created. if the question is ambiguous, no oracle can save it. people argue. models disagree. someone loses money on a technicality. so the fix isn't only better resolution. it's refusing to create the ambiguous market in the first place. at kash, that starts in chat: describe the idea, and the AI council turns it into explicit outcomes, resolution criteria and sources for you to review before the market goes live. the check that decides how a market resolves should be the same check that decides whether it gets to exist.

on the prediction markets most people know, a winning share pays $1. on a curve-based market, it doesn't. it pays whatever is in the pot, divided by the winning shares. and it changes what being early means. consider this: - a yes/no market seeded with $20. - someone buys $10 of yes and gets 17.4 shares. - the price moves. - the next person buys the same $10 of yes and gets 15.5. - someone else buys $10 of no. $50 in the pot. 52.9 yes shares out, counting the seed funds. if yes wins, each one redeems for about $0.94. > the first buyer takes home $16.46. > the second takes $14.64. same side, same $10, different timing. nobody is underwriting a $1 promise. the winners split what everyone put in, and getting there before the price moved gets you a bigger slice.