Melius Research remains bullish on Nvidia ($NVDA) but cut its price target to $315 from $420 as concerns shift from AI demand to how the massive infrastructure buildout will be financed. The firm also lowered targets on AMD ($AMD), Broadcom, Marvell, Dell, Qualcomm and CoreWeave. Melius said the biggest risk is the amount of new securities likely to hit the market as several trillion-dollar companies raise hundreds of billions of dollars to fund AI infrastructure. That creates a capital-supply problem. New bond and stock issuance competes for investor money, potentially pressuring valuations even if AI demand remains strong. The warning marks a shift in the AI debate. Investors have spent much of the past year focused on GPU demand, capacity constraints and whether AI spending will generate sufficient returns. Melius is now putting more emphasis on balance sheets and financing structures. The firm said valuation multiples may remain under pressure as more of the AI buildout relies on backstops and other financing arrangements through 2028. Those structures can reduce investor willingness to pay premium multiples, especially if hyperscalers increasingly depend on borrowed or newly raised capital to fund infrastructure. Melius also cut PC and smartphone-related estimates for AMD, Dell and Qualcomm, adding another source of pressure beyond data-center valuations. The Buy rating on Nvidia remains intact. The lower target reflects a reset in how much investors may be willing to pay for chip-sector earnings as financing risk becomes a larger part of the AI investment story.
