Bitcoin is entering the US midterm elections in a very different position from previous cycles. In 2014, 2018 and 2022, BTC was trading below its 200-day moving average on election day. This time, it’s approximately 5.2% above it. That’s an interesting difference, especially after Bitcoin already went through a significant correction earlier this year. Historically, BTC has also been higher 12 months after all three previous midterm elections. I’m not treating three data points as a guaranteed prediction, but the longer-term setup is certainly different this time.

Bitcoin has slipped below $77,000 as the tech sell-off deepens. The Nasdaq 100 is now 10% below its high, while the US semiconductor index has fallen 12% in three sessions. Crypto is feeling the pressure too. ZEC is down nearly 10%, SOL around 3%, and BNB has slipped below $700. It’s a reminder that Bitcoin doesn’t trade in isolation. When tech stocks weaken, broader risk appetite can take a hit too. We’ll be watching for technology stocks to stabilise before looking for a convincing recovery across crypto.

BREAKING: 🇧🇷 Brazil's largest crypto exchange, Mercado Bitcoin, has reportedly been hacked for more than $40 MILLION. The exchange has suspended deposits and withdrawals following the incident. Not a good situation for users, especially with funds potentially caught up in the disruption. The big question now is how much was actually stolen, which assets were affected, and when customers will be able to access their funds again. Another reminder that even major crypto platforms are not immune to security breaches.

Michael Saylor's Strategy has bought another 810 Bitcoin worth approximately $63 million. Saylor continues to increase the company's Bitcoin holdings, showing that Strategy remains committed to accumulating BTC despite current market conditions. https://t.co/2NgKlHB3gC

Metaplanet has committed approximately $160M to buying back its own shares. The Bitcoin-focused company repurchased 96.45 million shares as it moves to support shareholder value. A major capital allocation move from one of Japan’s largest corporate Bitcoin holders. https://t.co/j8SSewq4jM

US manufacturing data is back in focus today. The October ISM Manufacturing PMI drops at 10:00 AM ET, with markets expecting 54.6, compared with 54.5 previously. Here's what matters for Bitcoin: A stronger-than-expected reading could signal resilient economic activity, but it may also reinforce concerns that inflation remains sticky. A weaker reading could ease pressure on interest rate expectations, although a sharp slowdown would raise concerns about economic growth. The prices-paid component will be particularly important. One data release won't determine the Fed's next move, but it could influence expectations around rates, the dollar and risk assets. We'll be paying close attention to the reaction across markets.

Bitcoin's 20-week moving average is becoming an important level for the current recovery. Despite pulling back from the $84,000 region, BTC remains above this trend measure, currently sitting around $73,756. Holding above it would help preserve the improving weekly structure, while a sustained move below could signal that the recovery is losing momentum. The upper Bollinger Band is near $91,219, providing a broader upside reference if buying pressure returns. For now, we believe the 20-week average deserves close attention. How Bitcoin reacts around this level could help determine whether the recent recovery has further room to develop.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $643.2M in net outflows on October 30, reversing the positive trend seen across the previous four trading sessions. The withdrawals were spread across several major funds, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing $233.7M leave, Fidelity's FBTC recording $201M in outflows and ARK's ARKB losing $129.5M. The latest session more than erased the $440.8M accumulated in inflows over the previous four days. Despite this reversal, cumulative net inflows remain substantial at $57.44B, with total ETF net assets standing at $106.51B. We believe the distinction between long-term institutional participation and short-term demand is important here. The cumulative figures remain positive, but Friday's withdrawals highlight how quickly sentiment can shift. Further sessions of outflows would be a concern, while a return to consistent inflows would suggest this was a temporary setback rather than a broader change in institutional appetite.

Bitcoin is continuing to struggle to build a meaningful recovery after the recent sell-off. BTC has rebounded from around $76K but has spent the last few hours consolidating near $77K, with attempts to move higher lacking follow-through. The $78K area is the first level bulls need to reclaim to improve the short-term outlook. Until then, another test of $76K remains a possibility. For now, the market is showing signs of stabilisation near the lows, but there is not yet enough confirmation to call this a sustained recovery.

The Bank of England is consulting on rules for central clearing houses to accept tokenised collateral. This could make it easier for financial firms to move assets, meet margin calls and manage collateral. The important detail is that the BoE says the existing framework doesn't automatically prevent tokenised assets from being accepted. They still have to meet the required standards. That's a meaningful step for institutional tokenization. It isn't a blanket approval for every tokenised asset, but it shows how blockchain infrastructure could start fitting into the plumbing of traditional finance.