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French_Finance

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$MCD (+11%) from my average purchase price. Why is it going up? • Investors left tech for safe brands: +11% (vs. S&P 500 -3%) • Low valuation: 19x profit (vs. 25x usually) • US Bonds pay less recently: US 10-year 4.98% (vs. 5.31% on 5 Oct).

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$BTC Below, liquidation map (Bitcoin) Despite the recent pump, I think a final clean-up before the next move up to $70k is still possible. But I'm not sure Bitcoin will let sideliners recharge. https://t.co/WHQJhAS2qI

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Here are the main issues I see with Rocket Lab $RKLB and most space stocks right now: - Competing with Elon Musk and SpaceX is extremely difficult. - Capital is hard to attract in this sector. A lot of the money that used to go into space is now going into AI and data centers instead. - Dilution is a real problem. Rocket Lab has raised $2.5B in equity (+533% YoY), and the share count is up 22% to 629.7M. Even with strong revenue growth, this kind of dilution makes it harder for the stock to re-rate and for existing shareholders to benefit fully. What am I missing?

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$RKLB Rocket Lab keeps falling; here's why👇 • New shares: $1.94B (vs. +22% shares YoY) • Neutron late: 2027 (vs. 2024 first plan) • Cash used: $110M in Q2 (vs. $55M a year before) • Defense orders: SpaceX $4.16B (vs. $0.4B for RKLB) • Still expensive: 22x 2028 sales (vs. 6x in my estimate) I'm very interested in this business, but I think it is still early. Am I too bearish?

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Why did AI cloud stocks fall? Quick answer👇 Most well-known: CoreWeave, Oracle, Nebius, IREN. These companies borrow money. They use it to buy AI chips. Then they rent the chips to AI companies like OpenAI, Meta and Microsoft. The fear: loans are getting more expensive. Right now, lenders want 15% per year on CoreWeave bonds (vs. 13.4% in early Oct.). The business plan could be damaged.

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$ASTS is still falling. Why? The 5 main weaknesses👇 1- No phone user pays for AST yet. 2- Starlink already serves 7.4M phones a month. 3- Satellite signals barely get indoors. So it's a backup for dead zones, often free. 4- Carriers want several suppliers, which caps AST's prices. 5- AST burned $695M in Q2 alone. My full analysis below👇

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$ASTS (-62% from its high): giant satellites for ordinary phones, racing Starlink. AST SpaceMobile: $31.5M of sales (27x YoY), $695M of cash burned in Q2 (+124% QoQ). BUT no phone user pays for its service yet. 1/ Latest News🧵👇 https://t.co/xdBY8xe69o

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$ASTS Time to keep an eye on space stocks Why this drawdown for ASTS?👇 - SpaceX’s planned purchase of more radio frequencies would strengthen a direct competitor. That could hurt AST’s future sales and profits. - AST is not losing its existing frequencies. Think of frequencies as radio channels: SpaceX’s 800 MHz deal covers different channels from the 850 MHz ones AST accesses through AT&T and Verizon. - A long-term opportunity remains possible: AST still has telecom partners and contracted future revenue. But I will dig deeper over the next few days before buying. The R/R could be amazing.

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$ZS I'm closing my Zscaler position (+18,5% capital gain). Technical reasons: - Pays staff $822M in stock > $779M cash generated - Growth slowing: +25% last year, ~17% expected - Microsoft is growing as a competitor. - New CFO, CTO gone, sales head leaving Oct 1. Personal reasons: - don't like the fact that PaloAlto and CrowdStrike performed better. - want to build other positions: McDo and LVMH.