BTC has just broken below $76,800. This level is the 50-week moving average highlighted in Wintermute’s report this morning, which suggested that a break below would signal further bearish momentum. The whale on HL, known for flipping 40x positions back and forth, was liquidated twice in less than a day—once on longs, once on shorts. At 11:25 yesterday, his short position of 50.9 BTC was liquidated; then at 20:08, he went long 247.6 BTC at an average price of $77,981. This morning at 01:35 and 03:40, his long position was liquidated again for 89 BTC, and by 09:35, he closed his remaining 158 BTC longs, resulting in a loss of $224,000 on this long trade. At 09:36, he reversed course again, opening a short position of 145.6 BTC at an average price of $77,147. With BTC now below $76,800, this short is already up approximately $66,000 unrealized, with a liquidation price at $77,910. Both times, he reversed only after getting hit—this time, he got the direction right. But he’s already lost $260,000 this week and now has only around $320,000 left in his account; under 40x leverage, a mere 1.7% rebound in BTC could liquidate him again. Next target: the low of $76,265 set after the October 31 hack. Do you think it’ll hold—or will his short position ride this all the way down?

🚨 Brazil’s leading exchange, Mercado Bitcoin, just claimed “the incident is under control and customers suffered zero losses.” Ten minutes after issuing the statement, the hacker’s address moved again. At 20:56, the official statement was released, halting deposits and withdrawals. The Ethereum attack address flagged by Hypernative received another 314 $ETH via a cross-chain bridge between 21:06 and 21:12, then transferred 200 ETH to a new address at 21:20, and by 21:34–21:43, swept away all remaining funds: 183,000 USDe, 51,000 USDS, 39,000 RLUSD, and 369 PAXG. But the bulk of the funds haven’t moved yet: 106.07 BTC sit untouched in the Bitcoin address; 2,800 + 200 ETH remain frozen in two newly created addresses with no outgoing transactions, and the main address still holds 405.8 ETH; the TRON address still holds 708,000 USDT since 14:27. Combined, these frozen assets total approximately $16.75 million—less than half of the $40 million alert threshold. Two exchanges compromised in one week, both ending with the same line: “users are unaffected”—translated, that means the platform is covering losses itself. It’s good they can absorb the hit, but it also reveals that hot wallets routinely hold far more funds than most realize. “Under control”—does that mean the hackers are contained, or just that deposit and withdrawal buttons have been turned off?

🚨 Saylor’s Bitcoin cost basis is now just $2,285 away from the current price. Strategy’s recently filed 8-K: 849,000 BTC at an average cost of $75,451; current BTC price is $77,736—less than 3% away. This week’s new purchases of 811 BTC at an average price of $80,846 are currently underwater. More telling is where the money is going. This week, 1.179 million shares of MSTR were sold, generating $164 million in net proceeds, but only $65.5 million was used to buy Bitcoin, while $98.5 million remained as cash. Meanwhile, $208.2 million in cash was used to repurchase 2.09 million shares of STRC preferred stock—more than three times the amount spent on Bitcoin. The average repurchase price comes to roughly $99.50, still below the $100 par value. In plain terms, he’s prioritizing propping up his own “high-yield savings product,” while Bitcoin buying has taken a back seat. As the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally, if BTC falls below $75,451, the company will be in overall unrealized loss territory. Do you think this level will be broken in this cycle?

🚨 Maji holds a 25x long position of 5,200 $ETH, with a paper profit of $145,000—but his liquidation price has been chased up to $2,262, just $29 away from the current price. At 7 a.m. today, he held 3,225 ETH. As ETH rose, he added to his position repeatedly: adding near $2,270 at 7 a.m., then again near $2,310 at 11 a.m.—adding a total of 1,975 ETH over five hours, at an average price of ~$2,291. The more it rose, the more he added—raising his average entry to $2,263 and pushing his liquidation price to $2,262, leaving less than $1 between the two. With a position size of ~$11.91 million and only $385,000 in account equity, his actual leverage exceeds 30x. The HYPE longs have been gradually liquidated since midnight; this is now the only remaining position. A 1.3% retracement from the current price will trigger liquidation—this $145,000 paper profit will vanish. This isn’t buying the dip—it’s adding margin on the edge of a blade. Do you think ETH will rebound to $2,262 first, or will Maji pull it off again?

The whale who spent $43 million in two hours to buy 18,800 $ETH—everyone’s guessing who it is. But I want you to focus on something else: while he was buying, a group of scammers was surrounding him, poisoning his transactions. I dug through all the records for address 0x9EcA…5547: between 07:44 and 09:50, he acquired 18,860 ETH at an average price of ~$2,281. He then split the holdings into 18 transfers: 15,085 ETH went to 0x65C3…B841, and 3,617.94 ETH went to 0xBe95…aA85A. Every time he sent a legitimate transaction, within seconds—sometimes as fast as ten seconds—near-identical fake addresses sent him zero-value or dust transfers: 0x65C3ab…b841, 0xBe95ff…a85a. These fakes matched the real addresses exactly at the start and end. By 10:00, eight spoofed addresses had sent a total of 78 such transactions—including one that mimicked the address that had sent him USDC. Even the receiving addresses weren’t spared: at 08:41, when it attempted to send out 44 ETH, within nine minutes it received four fake “replies” from three spoofed addresses. The scammers are betting on one thing: next time you send funds, you’ll skip verifying the full address and just copy a “familiar” one from your history. Even a $43 million whale is being watched this way—and this trick works on everyone. The larger the transfer, the bigger the target. When you send funds, do you verify the full address—or just check the first and last few characters?

Ready to go all-in on $MSTR put options for the next trade! Just hoping for a black swan event this weekend to shake up the market. Why the sudden move? Because flying is boring... I might just close everything out when I wake up on Monday. Don’t take this seriously—it’s not investment advice. I didn’t even dream about it this time; hoping for some sign tonight. 😂 $BTC https://t.co/BNS9avhSdM

ICE sent back the post about the Trade[XYZ] partnership—it’s not off, but $HYPE didn’t bounce back: after reposting, it peaked at just 1.4%, and now sits at 88.0, still halfway down from its prior high. I just finished writing about its post deletion at 7:35 PM when a new one appeared. The opening line was changed to “planning to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetuals to the U.S.,” the first sentence of the second paragraph stated “subject to regulatory approval,” and it specifically ended by mentioning plans to apply for leverage trading authorization. I checked Hyperliquid’s 1-minute chart: the post was published when price closed at 87.50; by 7:47 PM it peaked at 88.73; at 7:56 PM, one minute of trading saw roughly 160,000 tokens (~$14M) traded, and price immediately dropped to 87.00—lower than before the post. My take: the market has already shifted from pricing in “ICE listing Hyperliquid” to pricing in “ICE planning to apply.” The drop when the post was deleted reflected fear of partnership cancellation; the repost confirmed this is now a waiting game for regulatory approval—with no timeline provided—so it’s no surprise it hasn’t recovered to 97. What to watch next isn’t how the tweet gets rewritten, but when both parties submit formal applications to U.S. regulators. Do you think the remaining half of the drop can be made up?

Nearly $1 trillion in market value has vanished from the market. This isn’t a typical correction—it’s a sell-off that left the entire crypto market gasping for air. $BTC https://t.co/LtaB7aSS8E

Why pay attention to what U.S. politicians buy? Look at this $MU trade. According to the original post, Fetterman purchased Micron Technology at the end of March, after which the stock price rose steadily, resulting in cumulative gains of over 200% as of the post’s publication, with another 4% gain that day. Interestingly, Fetterman serves on the Senate Commerce Committee, which oversees matters related to the CHIPS Act—and Micron received $6.165 billion in funding under that legislation. Putting these pieces together naturally draws attention. However, the connection between profitable holdings, committee responsibilities, and government subsidies alone does not prove any improper conduct. What matters is tracking the timing of disclosed trades, policy developments, and conflict-of-interest rules. $BTC

The crypto industry may be experiencing the largest hacking incident in history! 😱 To date, assets including BTC, ETH, USDT, USDC, and TRX have been affected, with total losses exceeding $5.6 billion. Breakdown: 💰 USDT: $1.57 billion 💰 BTC: $1.45 billion 💰 USDC: $823 million 💰 ETH: $875 million Tether and Circle are reportedly freezing at least $2.3 billion in related funds. This incident is a stark reminder to everyone: on-chain asset security is no small matter. $BTC