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周期教授

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A market where you can only go long. Possessing the world’s second-most advanced technology. Home to hundreds of millions of people eager to contribute to technological advancement. While foreign tech companies continuously set new all-time highs, The overall market index keeps drifting toward new lows. In the end, the only way to profit in this market is through zero-sum games, Treating one’s own people like fools. Real returns are only possible in a fair market. This is why more and more young people are buying Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index. By consistently investing in U.S. stocks over the long term, you can build a life of compound growth.

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The crypto bull market is here—I believe in high-quality assets, and I welcome additional suggestions. $BTC: Non-replaceable, the core holding. Outperforming BTC: ETH, SOL, BNB, HYPE, ZEC US Tech Giants: CRCL, HOOD, COIN, MSTR High-Potential Growth: XRP, DOGE, SUI, OKB, UNI, AAVE Early-Stage Exploration: PUMP, PONS, ASTER In my view, if constructing a portfolio, Bitcoin should make up at least 70% of your allocation. Of the remaining 30%, half should be allocated to assets that outperform BTC or the four US tech stocks listed above. Reserve 5% to participate in emerging industry opportunities. The crypto space thrives on rapid circulation—those who believe early sell to those who believe later. After prolonged bear markets, innovation and capital converge to ignite explosive growth—short-term momentum often outweighs long-term stability, but learning to judge timing is essential. Buy at areas of prior controversy; sell when the entire network is buzzing. The more widespread the discussion, the more retail investors have clustered—this is a danger zone. Meme coins born from attention economics rapidly validate these zones. Don’t let your emotions run wild just because others are making money. Everyone’s path to profit is different—find what suits you best. Meme coins suit high-energy individuals; derivatives trading suits those with discipline, mindset, and alignment between knowledge and action. Align with the macro cycle—accumulating spot assets consistently is the right path for ordinary investors. Stay confidently bullish on Bitcoin and the broader crypto industry. This route may seem slow, but over time, compounding will elevate your wealth to a new level.

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The full博弈 characteristics of $BTC make it especially suitable for right-side breakout trading, allowing traders to capture the entire price move—similar only to the U.S. Tech Seven and U.S. ETFs $QQQ and $SPY. Most other assets cannot achieve this; even when they exhibit independent rallies, they require catalysts from these assets. This is evident in the recent phenomenon where Bitcoin’s rally drove upward movements in ETH, UNI, PONS, and the Nasdaq, which in turn boosted semiconductor stocks.

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Today, I had dinner with the early investors who backed CXMTech. It reminded me of the boom in the crypto space back in 2017, when everyone was full of enthusiasm. Now, it feels like the wheels of history are rolling forward—these seasoned investors, much like the early crypto venture capitalists back then, casually discussed multi-million-dollar investments over drinks. Their expectations are still 10x to 100x returns. Hard tech and AI remain the dominant theme, and top-tier tech investors both domestically and internationally are still actively investing. These hot funds will eventually converge at a pivotal moment—the intersection where AI requires asset liquidity, and that liquidity is crypto.

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On August 29, Hyperliquid had a scheduled vesting release of approximately 14.18 million HYPE tokens, representing about 1.4% of the total supply, with roughly half allocated to internal teams. Tokenomist previously reported: By March 2026, approximately 405 million HYPE tokens will have been vested at the contract level, but only around 3.19 million have actually been claimed and entered circulation, resulting in a claim rate of approximately 0.79%. https://t.co/UkjwsTvigu

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NVIDIA's earnings report significantly exceeded expectations, driving a 5% surge in after-hours trading. Continuously accumulating positions in $SMH and $DRAM. Jensen Huang stated: “AI has reached a turning point. It is now performing productive work—its tokens are generating value and revenue. Today, computing power equals income.” I also believe the AI sector is far from fading; strong earnings will gradually fuel the entire industry. Second-quarter revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year and 18% sequentially. Data center revenue hit $89 billion, surging 117% year-over-year. The current issue is not lack of demand—it’s insufficient production capacity. This is unprecedentedly painful across the entire semiconductor cycle. Gross margin guidance for Q3 is 74%, with clear indication that Q4 will dip further to 71%-72%, primarily due to rising memory prices—this suggests positive implications for DRAM. This quarter, NVIDIA directly repurchased shares and paid dividends totaling approximately $26 billion, with $99 billion remaining under its authorized repurchase program. While aggressively investing in ecosystem building, the company is also generously rewarding shareholders—demonstrating robust cash flow generation. Moreover, NVIDIA is no longer just a chip seller. It has launched an independent AI fund targeting over $500 billion in third-party capital; expanded its partnership with Amazon, with AWS set to deploy an additional 2 million NVIDIA GPUs; is advancing AI factories in South Korea and Japan; and has begun providing full-stack tools for robotics, autonomous vehicles, and life sciences.

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If the new cycle low for $BTC is in June, the next market move will truly make you regret not buying enough— including me 😂

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It's too stifling in China right now. Even "Niu Lai" has become a phenomenon. Cinemas in Beijing have significantly increased the screening frequency of "Niu Lai." It's said that no one will truly understand "Niu Lai" within the next 30 years. Art really is only understood by a "few"... Next up: Monday's A-share market rally fueled by "Niu Lai." https://t.co/3LdvwlhcPf

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Is being a professional trader the best career? Some see it as gambling; others view it as a cash machine. Those who truly understand the patterns experience an unparalleled freedom: no need to please bosses, no reliance on family connections, no mandatory networking over drinks. All you need is a computer and a smartphone—the market is your entire world. There’s no midlife crisis at 35, no complicated social obligations. Many say trading is risky. But take a closer look around you: Isn’t entrepreneurship risky? Street-side shops change owners three times a year; tens of thousands spent on franchise fees and renovations vanish overnight. Is a 9-to-5 job risk-free? Your health deteriorates, your company lays you off, your industry declines—you’re随时淘汰 by the market at any moment. In comparison, the risks in trading are far more transparent: if something feels off, you can instantly hit “close all positions” and execute a stop-loss anytime. Can you shut down a physical store just like that? What about the capital tied up in inventory or the rent and deposit you’ve already paid—can any of that be instantly refunded? Of course, this path is by no means easy. It demands exceptional judgment, deep knowledge, and—most challenging of all—unwavering discipline. But compared to bowing and scraping in the real world, the freedom to survive independently through your own skills is truly priceless. Still, risks must be taken seriously. If you’re new, never blindly copy others’ trades or buy/sell based solely on someone else’s calls. Start with a small amount of money you can afford to lose—use it to gain hands-on experience. Only after building a stable, repeatable trading system should you consider increasing your capital.

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Why, if both are optical modules, did Zhiwei Innovation plummet while Lumentum rose? Zhiwei Innovation’s stock price dropped from a high of 1,416.88 yuan to 850.05 yuan, even though its performance and technology are undeniably leading in the industry. When faced with policy expectations such as FCC bans or overseas restrictions, market capital fled to avoid risk. Lumentum ($LITE), on the other hand, surged sharply. The market logic is straightforward: if Chinese optical module manufacturers face order restrictions or compliance risks, North American domestic supply chains like Lumentum will inevitably absorb the overflow of orders and capacity gaps. Some bloggers, trapped in losing positions, adopt an ostrich mentality—they argue that giants like NVIDIA are so heavily reliant on China’s optical module delivery capabilities and cost advantages that the U.S. government wouldn’t truly cut off supply. They believe the powerful demand from the AI computing revolution can override regulatory rules. But the market is ruthless. History has repeatedly shown that when regulations or legislation are fully implemented or signal clear intent, capital markets price assets based on survival and compliance. Investors would rather accept higher short-term procurement costs and slower delivery times than risk exposure to policy black swans. If I had to choose technology stocks to buy, I’d pick $SMH—not A-share tech stocks. Every time it’s different—yet every time, it’s exactly the same. Howard Marks wrote in The Most Important Thing: “Sometimes, when an upward or downward trend has persisted for a long time and reached an extreme, people begin saying, ‘This time is different.’ They cite geopolitics, institutional changes, technological revolutions, and behavioral shifts, claiming old rules are obsolete. They then make investment decisions based on extrapolating recent trends. Yet history proves that the old rules still apply, and cycles begin anew. Trees don’t grow to the sky, and very few things go to zero—but most phenomena are cyclical.”