⚡ Yi Lihua: There is significant market divergence at current levels; the AI bubble is not as large as imagined. On November 2, Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital, wrote that the broader market has withstood this black swan event in the short term. Currently, expectations for the midterm elections suggest the Republican Party may lose both chambers; even winning one chamber would be considered positive. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have likely passed their peak, leading to considerable divergence in market sentiment. Many are discussing an AI bubble, but AI demand is genuine and fundamentally different from the internet bubble of the past. A short-term correction after overheating is entirely normal and far from reaching the scale of a major bubble.

⚡ Citrini Analyst: Lumentum Management May Believe the Market Will Collapse in Two to Three Years On November 2, Citrini analyst Jukan commented on the "Marvell's acquisition of Lumentum" event on social media, stating that the only explanation for Lumentum’s management accepting this deal is their lack of confidence in the current AI development cycle. They believe the market will collapse within two to three years. According to data from the BIT stock platform, Marvell (MRVL) opened down as much as 6.52%, while Lumentum (LITE) fell as much as 11.38%.

⚡ Goldman Sachs insiders diverge on AI rally: One warns profit growth has peaked, another cites $1.1 trillion in backlog as proof of ROI On November 1, two senior Goldman Sachs strategists offered sharply contrasting views on the outlook for the AI rally. Tony Pasquariello argued that the third-quarter earnings reports from tech giants revealed that S&P 500 profit growth may have already peaked, with market momentum weakening—making large bets premature. In contrast, London-based strategist Mark Wilson contended that the combined $1.1 trillion backlog in orders for Google Cloud and AWS clearly demonstrates that AI investments are delivering returns, maintaining a bullish stance. Wilson cited data showing Google Cloud revenue up 103% year-over-year, with backlog increasing 256% to $561 billion; AWS revenue rose 39%, with backlog up 189% to $578 billion—combining for approximately $1.14 trillion in backlog. Wilson argued that the strong growth of global cloud providers confirms enduring AI demand and is addressing skepticism about investment returns. However, Pasquariello countered that robust cloud growth masks weakness in other core businesses: while tech giants continue to ramp up capital expenditures, they have yet to substantiate corresponding expansion in profit margins. He noted that signs of peak S&P 500 profit growth are emerging, and upward revisions to forward EPS estimates have noticeably slowed. The central market debate has now shifted from whether AI demand exists to how its returns will be realized. Despite Alphabet’s $561 billion cloud backlog, the company posted a $910 million net outflow in free cash flow this quarter—well below the $3.5 billion net inflow expected by markets. Another Goldman strategist, Rich Privorotsky, framed the issue as one of “value capture”: which companies along the AI value chain will actually generate profits, and at what cost of capital? Meanwhile, internal U.S. equity performance has diverged sharply: the S&P 500 excluding AI stocks significantly outperformed tech stocks in October. Both strategists agree market volatility remains elevated, but they hold differing views on whether the AI rally can be sustained.

⚡ Set a big goal first: Still believes the bottom of BTC’s current bull cycle is $58,000, with potential to reach $120,000 this year. The whale “Set a big goal first” posted an update on X regarding his Bitcoin market outlook and position adjustments. He noted that he previously believed the $78,000 level would be difficult to break, and prices remained above $79,000 until a recent black swan event caused a breach. He had already closed about two-thirds of his long positions near $76,000 to hedge against similar extreme market moves. After observing market stabilization over the past two days, he has re-entered full long positions in the $76,000–$78,000 range. His core thesis remains unchanged: he still views $58,000 as the bottom of BTC’s current cycle. He further indicated that the first-phase bottom of this bull market may be near $118,000, with the second-phase target at double the $78,000 level—approximately $150,000—and expects BTC to reach $120,000 by the end of this year.

⚡ Insight: This cycle, the crypto market may peak before the U.S. stock market, and Bitcoin could also bottom out before the broader stock market. On October 31, crypto trader Ansem posted that, in this cycle, the crypto market may have already peaked ahead of the U.S. stock market. If the recent rebound is merely a counter-trend rally and the U.S. stock market is only beginning a larger correction, crypto could still face another downturn. Ansem noted that risk appetite in this cycle has been largely driven by AI and U.S. equity performance, making it worth considering the possibility that crypto and traditional equities may peak at different times. However, he is not certain this scenario will unfold and remains open-minded, closely monitoring price reactions as both asset classes approach key levels. He also stated that even if crypto and U.S. stocks continue to decline in the short term, Bitcoin may still bottom out ahead of the broader stock market.

⚡Doomberg: U.S. Pressure on Allies to Hold Treasuries Is Bullish for Bitcoin and Gold in the Long Term In an interview published by Bitcoin Magazine, energy and macro analyst Doomberg stated that U.S. pressure on allies to continue holding U.S. Treasuries is reshaping how central banks calculate their reserve assets. He noted that in crisis situations, “you sell whatever you can, not whatever you want to sell,” explaining the short-term weakness in gold since February 28. Doomberg believes this dynamic is “extremely bullish” for gold and Bitcoin in the long term, as both serve as neutral reserve assets. He also added that younger generations, who are deeply reliant on the internet, are more likely to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve or store-of-value asset.

⚡ Yi Lihua: Wait Patiently for the Optimal Buying Opportunity; Still Bullish on High-Quality AI Stocks and Cryptographic Assets On October 30, Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital, posted that trading is not easy. Previously, when he maintained a bullish stance, the market experienced multiple pullbacks; after prices rose to $86,000 and he anticipated a correction, there were several rebounds—even reaching $87,000. Over the past month, prices repeatedly dropped to the $80,000–$81,000 range before swiftly rebounding back to the key $84,000 level. He emphasized that both rallies and corrections are never linear; traders should not constantly think about trading, but instead adhere to the principle of “watching for pullbacks without shorting,” patiently waiting for the optimal entry point. He noted that he founded and manages three funds with distinct focuses: crypto investing, crypto trading, and AI technology—among these, crypto trading is the most challenging, described as “a discipline against human nature.” He raised the question of whether investors will still have the confidence to buy the dip amid the impending extreme panic. Regarding future prospects, he views the temporary losses experienced by Buffett in Google and Duan Yongping in Pop Mart as fleeting phenomena, believing that AI will continue to create miracles and monetary expansion will not cease. High-quality AI stocks and cryptographic assets remain his favored long-term trends.

⚡Vitalik: AI is extremely learned but not wise, capable only of superficial judgments Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin replied to Ruxandra Teslo on X, stating that he believes AI is extremely learned and can excellently identify citations in nearly any content, but it is not wise, and thus can only make the most superficial judgments about the points a text is trying to convey. Vitalik Buterin noted that this is especially evident when AI analyzes text it encounters for the first time, as opposed to text already present in its training data alongside extensive prior analyses. He also said that AI’s learnedness is more visibly limited than its wisdom, and that wisdom may be precisely what is difficult to verify easily—unlike intelligence. This reply was in response to a post by Ruxandra Teslo, who expressed pessimism about humanity and argued that current large language models’ discussions of her writing remain low-quality content; she was responding to Sichu Lu’s claim that AI is better suited than humans to discuss classics.

⚡ Tom Lee: Wash's more dovish remarks favor the recovery of risk assets and AI trading On October 29, Tom Lee stated on CNBC following yesterday’s FOMC meeting that Wash’s recent comments were more dovish, benefiting the recovery of risk assets and AI trading. Tom Lee noted that Wash publicly questioned the notion that "AI growth inevitably leads to inflation," which is significant because markets had previously feared that AI-related capital expenditures would drive up inflation and force the Fed to raise or tighten rates. As a result, "we can now take good news at face value. You can now say that significantly better-than-expected data is positive, because the Fed won’t try to slow down AI growth."

⚡ Musk and Huang Renxun Clash on Views; JPMorgan: Market Consensus Is That Hyperscale AI Data Center Operators Are in Good Shape Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, recently warned that over 200 new cloud companies will face massive failures or consolidations; while some may survive, very few will. This warning sharply contradicts the earlier view expressed by NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun. Last week, Huang stated at GTC that demand for new cloud infrastructure far exceeds expectations. Although he acknowledged that new cloud firms urgently need funding and that capital is currently scarce, he remained confident the issue would be resolved. Jefferies analysts noted that Musk’s remarks triggered a new wave of panic trading. JPMorgan, however, believes the AI debt market is becoming more selective toward AI infrastructure but dismisses concerns about a broader financing crisis. JPMorgan’s market intelligence team emphasized that while credit shortages are concerning, the prevailing consensus is that hyperscale data center operators remain in strong condition, with large players continuing to dominate—and even smaller firms, including new cloud providers, still generating positive returns on investment. (Caixin)