I've seen folks adjusting goalposts, claiming the 4yr cycle still works because 3 months over 4yrs is a small delta. Missing prior tops by a quarter missed a median of 80% of the cycle upside. Missing prior lows by a quarter missed a median of +50% moves off the low. Let it go

In other words, buy the whole bottom, and stop worrying about trying to time the pico bottom. The majority buy when it feels safe to do so, which is during the euphoric bubbles. The smart minority buy when nobody cares, during apathetic drawn down markets.

A neat insight that I first heard from my good friend and legend @PermabullNino. This chart shows Thermo-price (lowest red), which is the all-time-average production price for mined coins. Each cycle, the bear has bottomed multiples higher, representing a monetary premium. The first 2011 cycle bottomed on the Thermo-price at a 1x multiple. Then 2015 based above a 2x. The 2018 and 2022 bears bottomed around a 6x or 7x premium. This cycles bear bottomed at around a 12x and we're back to a 16x. Thew other observation is that then area under the oscillator curve is getting larger, suggesting a more sustained monetary premium is developing over production cost with time. Tops have approached the 32x multiple ($313k today), but if this trend of rising floors continues, eventually the floor meets the top...and then shit gets really weird!

Bulls are always too married to their moon math thesis at the top to notice when it's over. I'm noticing many bears who remain married to their thesis of what the idealised Bitcoin bear market low has to look like. They missed the inflection point by several months as a result.

'Bottom confirmation isn't in until we hit new ATHs and hold above it for at least six months' - your local salty bear

The time to short was 6-9 months ago, not now. Just the same way bulls lever up too much near the top, the bears become far too confident after the juice has been squeezed.

Buy the whole bottom, not THE bottom. Waiting for the final wick to full port is a fools errand. It leaves no room for uncertainty and probabilities. Bitcoin has been in a deep value zone since the Feb capitulation at $60k. Humble yourself, and accept nobody knows the future.

Question for LN folks who use @PhoenixWallet. I recently issued an invoice generated in Pheonix which was paid by sender using Wallet of Satoshi. Sender has confirmed preimage for payment, but I have not received. I have sufficient inbound liquidity + other LN payments have arrived. Any ideas on how to identify where funds are? Is there anything receiver can do with preimage to force receipt? Cc @MarkOfBitcoin

Folks who generated their seed with a Coldcard post 2021, please review this thread. Stay calm, focus, and take action.

I think the most likely reason is actually to force a state of malaise and ossification. If I was a nation state, with a useful (not idiot) in hand, that's exactly what I would do. Bog the system down in nonsense, so the important shit gets put on the forever backburner.