The cool thing about this batch is that it’s the only place to get public exposure to @fomo and @tradexyz.

The market now prices the odds of a $1M hack each week at 95% with nine of the ten previous weeks recording hacks above that threshold. Odds of $5M+ and $10M+ hacks are 59% and 42%, respectively. Seven out of the previous ten weeks recorded exploits above those levels. Odds of $25M+ hack is 21% with six of the last ten weeks registering exploits exceeding that amount. This is some jarring math tbh 🤯 Data by @DefiLlama https://t.co/W9RNkaOdn4

Not sure about the nature of this security incident. But on that note, with web2 infra having a complete breakdown ofer the past week, I think mission critical offchain App components (i.e. matching engines) are particularly exposed in the event of a server breach.

My gut tells me more privacy = more informed flow. Which in turn = improved predictive accuracy. Some PM ethics critics might take issue with what “informed flow” means here, but I’d say that’s beside the point. Fwiw it’s not too hard for us to implement a privacy system on top of @Trueo_ if there’s demand for it. We already explored this avenue a bit last year.

The intersection of ideological and degen is a powerful combination for builders. Holding your wealth in permissionless cryptographic databases requires elevated blood degen levels no matter how idealistic you are. Too much ideology and you end up never building anything with practical utility. Too much degen and you end up in the solano/pump mindslop. Fwiw I think the best place at the intersection is somewhere just inside the ideological strip. Enough so that you live among idealists, but close enough to the intersection where you can still see the bright lights and billboards of the degens.

Crypto “bunker mode” is looking pretty trivial compared to what meatspace might have to deal with

Dollars are being sold at a discount left and right on DefiLlama’s @Trueo markets rn

When Blast L2 winds down, what happens to the token? Since it’s native to Blast does it just disappear?

It’s insane to think how common exploits are in our industry. This market is almost guaranteeing a $1M hack in the next week. Pretty eye opening when the odds are quantified this way tbh. But I also think it strengthens Vitalik’s theory that AI will lead to fewer exploits over time and better software. The overwhelming majority of DeFi hacks affect smaller projects that don’t have the resources to develop end to end verified code or anything even close to. Access to frontier models means every dev gets a seasoned engineer that reviews their code at every stage of development. It’s tough to argue that won’t lead to a reduction in security incidents.

This integration is massive. @DefiLlama is the first major market curator on Trueo. Why is this a big deal Distribution. Aka eyeballs. DefiLlama is the most widely adopted analytics platform in crypto, they cover everything onchain. With this partnership, Trueo’s markets are integrated directly into the dashboards that are so essential to onchain research. Interested in Hyperliquid’s metrics? You can now see the real-time probabilities of them hitting certain milestones this week, month, or quarter right next to the data you’re consuming. Curious about protocol exploit risks? Find the odds of a protocol being hacked as you research it. Want to hedge that risk? Our markets can help cover some of that downside. DefiLlama users include degens, businesses, institutions, and even governments! Their newsletter alone has 33K subs. I envision a future where prediction markets are embedded into virtually every news, media, and data platform. This partnership is a leap in that direction. Long live Trueo. Long Live DefiLlama ✌️