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Real Vision

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GM Visionaries… here’s where the market stands midweek: - Heavy earnings night ahead (Qualcomm, Arm, AppLovin, MercadoLibre). - Record early-voter turnout. The policy direction from here touches energy, taxes and risk appetite into year-end. - Power is still the bottleneck for the AI build-out. GE Vernova, Eaton and Vertiv all rallied yesterday. - CoreWeave brought its first Danish data centre online. What’s your focus into the weekend?

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Markets haven’t moved since July because the liquidity hasn’t moved. @RaoulGMI's explanation: the dollar's up, the curve's flatter and rates are higher, so the banking system is creating money too slowly to push anything higher.  He's calling for pretty crappy markets for the rest of the year.

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China's AI stock index has nearly halved since July. The STAR 50 fell another 3.8% today, and some of its biggest AI names are down 50 to 70% from their highs. The selling has stayed with AI stocks, while Hong Kong rose and the wider market barely moved.  Is China a warning for US AI stocks, or just a pause?

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Amazon just grew AWS at its fastest pace in nearly five years and still fell 7% after hours. Same story at Alphabet. Google Cloud revenue doubled, and the stock lost $500 billion in a day. The market is pricing the capex spend. Microsoft spent less than it guided and kept its cash flow positive. Its stock held. The new Mag 7 scorecard: grow and burn cash, you get sold. Grow and keep it, you get held.

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"The bottom is in... It's just that it's early and we're going to see chop." @CryptoWithKris's financial conditions indicator flipped red six weeks ago. Money got tighter, and Bitcoin slid three weeks in a row. Now conditions are loosening and equities are responding. Kris wants that to trickle into Bitcoin next. If the bounce fails, he's watching $76,000 as support.

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Buy the US midterms? One RV member pulled the pattern after every midterm since 1942. The six months after midterms have averaged a 14.4% gain for the S&P 500, according to Matthew Wilson. He checked it against the rest of the election cycle, and no other stretch of the election cycle tops 5%. Does it hold a 22nd time?

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CT says pumpfun is dead. @CryptoWithKris checked the revenue instead: Pump fun made $67 million in the last 30 days. That's third in all of crypto, behind only the two giant stablecoin issuers. Ahead of Hyperliquid and Tron. It also buys back and burns with that revenue, so holders get paid directly.

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Warsh can't cut rates and is too scared to raise them. Maleeha Bengali (@MaleehaMBCC) calls him "a dove in hawk's clothing", buying six to eight weeks while he waits for the AI data or a slowdown. https://t.co/2XRQzjNrPw

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Unusual Machines makes US-made drone parts that meet Pentagon sourcing rules, and it just landed a $16.9 million order. One Real Vision member is long into its Q3 results. Also this week: an earnings call on Alphabet and a macro note on why the post-midterm window has beaten every other stretch of the election cycle for the S&P 500 since 1942. Palvatar walks through the most interesting trade ideas from inside the Real Vision platform.