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Brian Li

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Why a16z Frontier Is Good for Crypto By now you’ve seen that a16z Crypto is rebranding to a16z Frontier and widening its mandate beyond crypto. You’ve also seen the backlash. I take the view that this is net positive for the industry: 1. The groundwork is largely done: Nobody needs another Layer 1 and the surviving middleware infrastructure (such as DEXs) has gone multi-chain. The opportunity moved up the stack to applications and the capital should follow. 2. Crypto investing is now equity investing: With infrastructure settled, deals are increasingly equity in companies rather than tokens in protocols. Equity requires fundamentals and domain expertise that extends beyond pure crypto investing. 3. Refocusing on the App Layer: As the Layer 1 and middleware problems get resolved, the application of decentralized networks and cryptography naturally ascends the stack. So far the killer apps are few: stablecoins (proven), prediction markets (proven), tokenization (ehh), and memes (for better or worse, yes). Beyond those we’ve struggled to find use cases, and my view is that the next ones will have to come from outside the insular periscope of crypto. Many have dismissed intersections like crypto x AI, compute markets and distributed spatial computing as snake-oil slop, but beneath the surface sits enormous opportunity. 4. More Intersections: AI has done a great job broadening LLMs into other industries, including law (Harvey, Legora) and healthcare (Abridge). Crypto has struggled to do the same. In those AI companies, the model is internal plumbing and the application focuses on solving a problem with a beautiful interface. Crypto must do the same, where stablecoins, cryptography and public blockchains are the feature and not the product. 5. Expanding the investment scope and the co-investor base: I’ve spent the past two years investing in both AI and crypto. For 90% of AI investors and crypto investors there is an odd dissonance and almost no collaboration, and founders at the intersection pay for it. Crypto funds ask where the token is, AI funds won’t touch chains, and the best companies I see sit in that gap. The two networks are far apart today and I expect them to meld. This looks harsh from the outside, but it may be exactly the signal the industry needed.

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I’ve been in crypto for 4.5 years now. These were my predictions for the year’s big theme vs. what actually happened: 2026: Tokenization ➡️ Privacy 2025: Stablecoins ➡️ Stablecoins 2024: DePIN ➡️ ETFs 2023: Solana competitors ➡️ L2 rollups 2022: Supercycle ➡️ doom

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Common consensus is that Crypto x AI is snake oil. When people thought of Crypto x AI they thought of the ai16z memecoin fiasco. BlackRock disagrees and highlights the potential "AI may be the demand engine that finally gives parts of crypto sustained economic utility" 🫪

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Congrats to NScale on their upcoming IPO! The flack of the dependency risk also creates opportunity. If you’re overwhelmingly bullish on Microsoft and Anthropic, NScale serves as a second order proxy with two customers growing faster than anyone else

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By far the hottest software sectors this summer in venture was AI Security Nearly every VC I talked to saw at least 50+ AI security deals. Those who chose wisely will become massive winners

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enterprise ai has been focused around compliance and controls, we will see two category winners: - service-enabled AI risk systems - harnesses/specialized add-ons for safer and more controlled AI

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There are three emerging viewpoints of AI: - AI will kill us all in less than 10 years - GDP will skyrocket while creating mass job displacement - AI will be a utility like water, billed by the meter All of them have some degree of truth to them while being inflammatory at the same time

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I’m on the same train as Gary Gensler He’s wearing a surgical mask and then holds the entire line up by bitching about how a woman’s backpack is in his leg space. Some things never change

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Thee following ripple effect will occur: 1. SpaceX, Stripe, and Anthropic will IPO, unlocking nearly $70M of capital 2. Many of the SPVs into those three will be scams or have so many fee layers that returns are mid 3. DPI will be returned back to Pensions/Endowments which will rebalance their portfolios 4. 2024-2025 vintages begin to crush mega funds on an IRR basis. Many of these Vertical AI plays look more like Growth Equity/PE and get acquired and managers show DPI 5. A select few FoFs and endowments champion the rise of emerging managers Overall, 2026 is still going to be rough, 2027 warms up, 2028 is the return

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The amount of ecosystem growth that could expand into the Ripple ecosystem is staggering It would solve many of the TVL problems that XRPL is facing today

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