The first level Bitcoin needs to reclaim above is the ETF cost zone at $84,000. Below, there are two key levels that must be defended to maintain the medium-term bullish trend. The first is the True Market Mean at $77.8K, which represents the average cost of active investors. The second is the $75.7K level, the cost zone for short-term traders. These levels gradually rise over time; today’s short-term cost zone at $75K could become $76K–$77K in a few days, so it’s essential to monitor not just price but also the current status of these cost levels. In my view—and that of many on-chain analysts—the bullish trend is only at risk once the True Market Mean level is breached. Then, the short-term average cost zone must also be lost; if price closes below these levels for multiple consecutive days, the bullish trend is under threat. However, if price retests these levels and closes above them again, there’s no cause for concern—this has happened before and is normal behavior. As long as Bitcoin remains above these two levels, there is no significant risk to the medium-term bullish outlook, and any pullbacks will inevitably find buyers at these levels. Until these levels are broken, I don’t believe we should be discussing a bearish trend—just as we shouldn’t discuss a bullish trend until they’re reclaimed. Temporary upward rallies will always occur, but they may not be sustainable. In the short term, we need renewed buying support from spot markets and renewed demand from ETFs. Currently, after the spot market turned bearish at $84K, no such reversal has materialized. I’ll update you immediately if conditions change. This is the overall picture.
