Last week I wrote about SMSF trustees sent into a branch to approve a transfer to a crypto exchange. From 1 December, Westpac won't process payments to exchanges in a branch at all, and caps the rest at A$10,000 a month, with no exemptions. At that pace, moving A$300,000 onto an exchange takes 30 months. If you're a trustee rolling over a big balance, the fund's bank now decides how fast you can buy.

Since New Year, Bitcoin is down 16.2% in Australian dollars. A$350 a fortnight over the same stretch is up 5.1%. Same A$7,700. One lot went in on 1 January. The other went in over 22 buys, through the February sell-off and the July low. A plan doesn't need you to pick the day.

Since 2012, Bitcoin has been lower a week later on 45% of days. Then I checked where it was four years later, from every start date in our history, the 2021 top included. That answer is why I'll never be a full-time trader. It's in the article below.

Every SMSF transfer a bank blocks makes me more bullish on Bitcoin, not less. People are sick of being controlled and told what to do with their own money. They want agency, and assets they actually control. Crypto gives them that. The banking system does the opposite.

In Australian dollars, the last three Bitcoin crashes fell 74% to 83% and took about a year to find a bottom. This one fell 55% in nine months. Is Bitcoin growing up, or is this crash not finished? I don't know, and my plan doesn't need me to. It buys while the CSH Score is under 45 either way. Tom ran the numbers:

I had Claude pull every day since 2012 that the CSH Score sat between 30 and 35, where it's been for most of October. Two years later, Bitcoin was higher on all 214 of them. The smallest gain was 47%. One year later, it was higher 89% of the time. Every miss came in late 2014. Past Scores use today's model, so this is hindsight, not a promise. But it's why my plan keeps buying here.

"Writing the plan before you move any money is underrated. Most SMSF regret starts from FOMO, not from fees." @harvey8112 left that under one of my posts last week. It's what I tell trustees at work: figure out your plan first, then move the money.

One weekly close would make me rethink this bull market: Bitcoin under its 50-week moving average, about US$76,000. That's what happened in 2019. Bitcoin closed back above its 50-week MA in May, ran to about US$12,900, then closed back under it in December. Three months later COVID took it to about US$4,960. By April 2021 it was about US$63,000. My plan wouldn't change. It keeps buying while the CSH Score is under 45, with bigger orders the lower it goes. This morning's weekly close: about US$80,400, still above it.

Some SMSF trustees were told to go into a branch, while on holiday, to approve a transfer from their own fund to a crypto exchange. They went. The bank still blocked it. Since last week's post I've spoken to a lot of trustees made to feel like criminals for moving their own money. Hours on hold, waiting for a "fraud expert" whose job is basically to find a way to block it. And this wasn't some offshore site. It was a licensed Australian exchange, registered with AUSTRAC, with thousands of customers.

Fakeout fears are back, and Arthur Hayes dumping his bags has everyone freaking out. Who cares. I'm sticking to my plan. Here's why. I checked every day since 2012 the CSH Score sat where it is today. What Bitcoin did two years later is in tonight's newsletter. Link below.