Buying 1¢ “impossible” bets… and getting paid for it. Strategy is brutally simple: - buys YES at 1¢ - only 5-15 min crypto markets - spreads across all coins - tiny size ($1-$10 per bet) Most trades go to zero. But when one hits > 1¢ > $1.00 (100x) That’s the whole game: many small losses > rare asymmetric wins Started Jan 19, 2026 at ~$8K PnL Now: $21K (+$13K / +162%) I will try to copytrade him... Profile: https://t.co/bhWaM9Em7N
How to farm ~4% APY on Polymarket with minimal risk Most people use Polymarket to gamble outcomes. But there’s a quieter play: market-neutral yield. Here’s the basic setup. First, open an account and go to the 4% rewards markets section. Pick any market - for example Republican Presidential Nominee 2028. The trick is simple: you don’t bet on an outcome. Instead, you split the market. Use Split Shares → the platform gives you equal YES and NO shares. Together they always equal $1 at resolution, regardless of who wins. That means: - no exposure to volatility - no directional risk - no betting required You’re just holding a neutral position while earning the reward yield. If you want to exit early, just use Merge Shares. The shares recombine and you get your USDC back. Extra upside: people farming this may also qualify for a future Polymarket airdrop. Interesting stat: only ~4,000 users have farmed even $5 using this method so far. Sometimes the best trade on prediction markets… is not predicting anything at all
Jane Street moving $19M in BTC… coincidence? Wallets linked to Jane Street just deposited ~$19,000,000 in BTC to institutional-focused exchanges. These are the same types of platforms where the infamous 10:00 AM slams have historically originated. When firms like Jane Street move size, they’re rarely “investing.” Watch the tape...
> be Rob Granieri > co-found Jane Street in 1999 > take no official title > no headshot > no interviews > control the most systemically important market maker in ETFs > build a firm that becomes authorized participant across multiple Bitcoin ETFs > control creation/redemption plumbing > hold inventory > hold flow > hold timing September 2021 > former Terraform intern joins full-time > private chat allegedly shares material nonpublic info May 7, 2022 > $150M UST pulled from Curve > 10 minutes later > wallet linked to Jane Street pulls $85M > UST depegs > Luna collapses > $40B erased > lawsuit filed in Manhattan > firm calls it “baseless” late 2024 > 10:00am ET > Bitcoin drops > liquidations cascade > recovers by afternoon > repeat for months > pattern pauses when litigation becomes public resumes later Q4 2025 13F > $790M in IBIT disclosed > crypto media: “institutional accumulation” professionals: 13F shows only longs > options invisible > futures invisible > swaps invisible > net exposure unknowable India, 2025 > regulator publishes 105-page order > alleges coordinated BANKNIFTY options manipulation $4.3B profit over two years Granieri runs culture of probability, edge, speed > avoids spotlight > avoids narrative > focuses on structure > look eccentric > operate surgical > hold ETF infrastructure > hold derivative opacity > be CEO without the title > influence price without touching the protocol > let the market debate scarcity > control the layer above it If the protocol is fixed at 21M, but the price is discovered in layers Jane Street can manufacture - who actually decides Bitcoin’s value?
> Be Jane Street Capital > one of the most powerful trading firms on Wall Street > quietly controls the infrastructure of Bitcoin's price Thread 1: The Intern > Bryce Pratt works as intern at Terraform Labs > leaves Terraform, joins Jane Street full-time in September 2021 > creates a private chat group called "Bryce's Secret" > allegedly passes material nonpublic information from Terraform to Jane Street > May 7, 2022: Terraform withdraws $150M in TerraUSD from Curve3pool > no public announcement made > within ten minutes: a wallet linked to Jane Street pulls $85M from the same pool > combined selling breaks UST's dollar peg > Luna's algorithmic mechanism spirals > $40 billion in market value destroyed > retail investors wiped out >Jane Street avoids $200M+ in losses by exiting hours before the collapse > federal lawsuit filed in Manhattan by Terraform's bankruptcy administrator > Jane Street calls it "desperate" and "baseless" > Do Kwon is now serving 15 years in prison Thread 2: The Clock > late 2024: traders start noticing something strange > every single trading day, at exactly 10am Eastern Bitcoin flash crashes > algorithmic, precise, disproportionate to any market news > leveraged longs get wiped > liquidation cascades triggered > price recovers hours later > Glassnode co-founders document the pattern across months of data > December charts: Bitcoin drops from $89,700 to $87,700 in minutes > $171 million in long positions erased > happens again the next day and the next > Jane Street is a designated market maker and authorized participant for multiple Bitcoin ETFs > has the inventory and infrastructure to sell at scale into predictable thin liquidity windows > depresses price → triggers liquidations → re-enters at the bottom of a move it manufactured > then: Terraform lawsuit becomes public > the 10am crashes stop immediately > Bitcoin stabilizes > the pattern resumes in Q3 2025 > by December: back at full force > stops when lawyers are watching > starts again when they look away Thread 3: The Machine > Q4 2025 13F filing: Jane Street discloses 20,315,780 shares of BlackRock's IBIT > worth approximately $790 million > added $276 million worth in a single quarter > at peak: position worth nearly $2.5 billion > simultaneously boosts MicroStrategy holdings by 473% > crypto press celebrates it as bullish institutional accumulation > people who understand market structure immediately push back > former hedge fund manager Michael Green: the IBIT position "is almost entirely offset by undisclosed options and futures positions" >former prop trader Ryan Scott: "anyone posting this as bullish is committing a capital offense" here is why: > a 13F filing only discloses long equity positions options, futures, and swaps do not need to be reported >if Jane Street holds $790M in IBIT and offsets it with $790M in puts or short futures, net Bitcoin exposure is zero > if the derivative book exceeds the equity position, net exposure is negative > meaning Jane Street profits when Bitcoin's price falls the public sees accumulation > the actual position could be a massive short disguised as a long > nobody outside the firm can see the other side of the balance sheet The Precedent > 2025: India's SEBI publishes a 105-page enforcement order against Jane Street > coordinated manipulation of BANKNIFTY index options > ₹36,502 crore (~$4.3 billion) in profits extracted over two years > ₹735 crore extracted in a single trading day > SEBI: "clearly illegal in any country with a functioning financial regulator" strategy: use privileged speed and scale to move one market, harvest profits in the derivative layer on top > interim trading restrictions issued the question becomes unavoidable: does the same logic apply to Bitcoin? The Hard Cap Bitcoin's 21 million cap is enforced at the protocol level > it assumes price discovery is honest > it assumes institutional positions represent real exposure Jane Street can fabricate unlimited synthetic supply through undisclosed derivatives stacked on top of its own ETF inventory > the scarcity is real inside the network > the price discovery mechanism sitting above it has been compromised > one firm holds the keys to the ETF infrastructure > faces a federal lawsuit for front-running a $40 billion collapse > ran algorithmic sell programs for months > maintains a derivative book that could make its largest disclosed position the opposite of what it appears Every Bitcoin holder deserves one answer: What is Jane Street's actual net position? Until we know, Jane Street decides the price of Bitcoin.
Vibe coding is turning Polymarket into money printer People with zero coding background are spinning up profitable trading bots using Claude. No CS degree. No years of grind. Just a $20 subscription and the right prompt. You tell Claude what you want: - spot arbitrage between Polymarket and other markets - track BTC 15-min up/down delays - mirror whale wallets - auto-execute with basic risk controls Claude spits out Python, wires APIs, handles automation. You tweak, deploy, done. This isn’t theory. We’re already seeing: - $500–$800/day from simple MMing - $25/hour with arbitrage - $75K/month from alert + execution bots one trader turned $300K in 30 days with such bot > https://t.co/2YJRMXDME6 Just speed + mispricing + repetition. And the question arises: why haven’t you created your own bot yet?