I’ve been hearing the phrase “institutions are buying the dip” a lot these days, so I checked the numbers for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. On the 11th, another $300 million flowed out, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounting for nearly $270 million. This marks the fifth consecutive day of outflows, totaling over $1.4 billion in five days. If institutions were truly buying the dip, this wouldn’t be the pattern we’d see. Until this stream of outflows reverses, I won’t take that phrase as a sign of a bottom.

Don’t mistake the move at 10:00 as a pullback. At 10:06, $ZEC bounced back to 1000, then surged to 1007 by 10:20 but failed to hold, dropping back within minutes—it’s now at 988. That earlier move was just a false pullback. If you want to short, wait until it attempts 1000–1007 again and stalls; place your stop-loss above 1007. If you want to buy, only consider a small position if it stabilizes near 951, with a stop-loss below 951. $NVDAB is still consolidating around 161. At 10:19, it spiked to 164.4 before retreating. The post-market rally was driven by rumors about Jensen Huang; U.S. regular trading opens at 21:30 tonight, and earnings are not due until the 17th. Don’t treat 164.4 as a breakout, and don’t assume 155–156 is a bottom—wait to see how it’s priced tonight. $BTC is currently at 73,819. It dipped to 73,590 at 10:00, slightly lower than this morning’s low of 73,606, but didn’t break 73,480. It then rallied to 74,092 but still hasn’t reached the 74,217 high from 8:48, let alone the凌晨’s 74,811. If you entered long near 73,200 and haven’t yet cleared 74,217, consider reducing your position. If you want to go long, wait to see if buyers step in around 73,590–73,480; even better, wait for a retest of 73,209 or the 200-day MA at 73,173 before entering a small position—with a stop-loss below 72,700. Don’t short at 73,800; wait for another failed attempt at 74,217 or the range of 74,474–74,811. If 73,590 or 73,480 breaks first, the next targets are 73,209 and the moving average. Strategy and Metaplanet have been officially removed from the MSCI index—effective after close on November 30. $MSTRB is at 119.5, with a low of 118.2; don’t rush to buy near 120. $INIT dropped to 0.110 at 11:00, rebounded to 0.139, and is now at 0.136—avoid touching this safety-related stock. #Jensen Huang again accused of affair with subordinate; possible board removal #NVIDIA Q3 Earnings Approaching: Can It Ease Market Concerns? #$ZEC Drops Below $1,000 for First Time Since September #Strategy and Metaplanet Removed from MSCI Index #CPI Above Expectations; U.S. Stocks and BTC Face Further Pressure $BTC $ZEC $NVDAB $MSTRB $INIT

Last night, I mentioned NVDA around $175, referring to a rebound from Tuesday’s sharp drop. But things changed after hours. The Wall Street Journal reported that the board is discussing whether to remove Jensen Huang. The company has not officially responded—this is a report, not a confirmed decision. After hours, the stock dropped about 8%, falling from a close of $173.73 to around $160. The actual earnings report isn’t until the 17th. I won’t short or try to catch a bottom on this after-hours move. I’ll wait for tonight’s regular market session to set the price direction.

Deutsche Bank’s crypto custody service has officially launched. Some in the community are already calling it a bullish sign, but let me pour some cold water on this: this is not the bank buying crypto itself. Both Reuters and Deutsche Bank have clarified that the service is aimed at paying European institutions and corporations—retail investors are not eligible. It currently only supports custody and transfers of clients’ wallets and private keys, not trading. Supported assets are limited to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and select stablecoins. The fact that a major traditional bank is willing to step in and manage crypto is, in the long term, a meaningful signal. But the launch of a service is not the same as large capital already entering the market. For now, I’m watching—no rush to jump in.

At 0:21 AM Shanghai time on November 12, take a look at the chart. I still analyze the structure on the 4-hour timeframe and use the 15-minute and 1-hour charts to assess pullbacks. Crypto remains in a defensive rebound phase, while U.S. equities are being lifted by chips and AI, with Microsoft and Amazon dragging down the Nasdaq. For assets that have already rallied significantly, I prefer to wait for pullbacks rather than chasing highs. Regular U.S. market trading ends at 5:00 AM Shanghai time; on Friday, November 13, at 9:30 PM Shanghai time, the PPI will be released. BTCUSDT is around 74,177; it remains below the moving average on the 4-hour chart, and the broader structure has not yet turned bullish. The low of November 11 at 72,691 held near 72,700. For a pullback, first watch 73,888–73,950, then 73,540–73,630. If this rebound fails, watch 73,358, followed by 73,184 and 72,691. To turn bullish, BTC must first reclaim 74,509 and break above 74,456; a cleaner breakout would require a move to 75,548–76,169. ETHUSDT is around 2,076 and appears more like a bounce from oversold levels. For a pullback, first watch 2,067, then 2,043–2,049. If ETH breaks below 2,043, I’ll consider the rebound failed; the defensive structure remains around 2,000–2,010. BNBUSDT is around 686—the most resilient—but it’s already trading near its intraday high of 687.74, making it unsuitable for chasing. For a pullback, first watch 683.77–684, then 679–681. If this fails, watch 679; deeper support lies at 670.

For the broader market, I’m focusing on QQQUSDT around 692.10, near the high of 692.99. The 4-hour chart has turned stronger, but it hasn’t yet broken above the November 4 high of 702.62—so I’m not chasing. If it pulls back, first watch 690.78, then 689.7–686; if those fail, watch the open low at 684.6. Don’t treat the Magnificent Seven as a single trade. NVDAUSDT is around 175.48 and still recovering from Tuesday’s sharp drop—not yet a trend reversal to bullish. Watch for pullbacks to 174.88–173.00, then 171.20; failure occurs at 171.20. TSLAUSDT at ~393.86, GOOGLUSDT at ~292.13, and AAPLUSDT at ~354.03 are all near their highs—wait for pullbacks. MSFTUSDT at ~521.42 and AMZNUSDT at ~266.66 are lagging, clinging to their lows with thin order books. METAUSDT at ~641.97 is nearly flat; the open low of 634.75 is key support. AI-related stocks led today’s rally, most having moved well above their open lows. SNDKUSDT is around 997, surged to 1,007, then pulled back—I’m watching it alongside MU and NVDA. First pullback target: 988–989, then 977, then 967–959. Structural failure would be at the open low of 921, but it’s too far away to be actionable—suitable only for observation, not heavy positioning. A 8-for-1 stock split occurs on November 20. MUUSDT is around 819; watch pullbacks to 813–809, then 804; failure at 764.68. CRWVUSDT is around 60.31; the pre-market retracement call has failed—it’s now near the high of 60.59, so don’t chase. Also watch pullbacks in AMD and INTC. AVGO, TSM, and MRVL have thinner order books. SOXL is a 3x leveraged product—I don’t treat it as core. Crypto-linked stocks are following but still lagging chips, behaving more like a rebound alongside Bitcoin. MSTRUSDT is around 123.36—the most liquid; watch pullbacks to 122.54, then 120.47; failure at 120.47. COIN, CRCL, and HOOD should also be watched for pullbacks—don’t treat them as pure AI plays. These are merely market observations—not trading recommendations.

Woke up today to the shocking news of Xu Da’s passing—I was stunned. He was so young, and such a vibrant, optimistic OG. I first met him in 2018 or 2019, when both Xu Da and Haze were still at Pai Network—we had dinner together in Xiamen during an event. Later, when the exchange expanded overseas again, Xu Da launched his own project, while Haze created the hit product GMGN. I never expected it to happen so suddenly—no wonder I hadn’t seen any updates from Xu Da in the past six months. RIP 🙏🙏🙏 Life is unpredictable; may you rest in peace 🙏🙏🙏 To everyone in the crypto community: your health comes first. Only when you’re healthy can you focus on doing more; when you’re not, all you can think about is how to get healthy—and nothing else matters. Less late nights, more exercise—I’m going to start prioritizing my own well-being too.

Although the dream of getting rich has shattered, the safety of your funds is what matters most—and there’s also compensation. That’s a big-picture approach.

#vanar $VANRY Today's market was heavily battered, with BTC breaking below 82,000 USD, dragging $VANRY down to around $0.0068 as well. This kind of decline is a "sweeping sell-off" and not due to any specific project issues. Currently, RSI is in oversold territory, and the resilience shown after the black swan event on 10.11 is being tested again. Key point: The 87% network staking rate remains unchanged, indicating that whales and long-term holders are still present. At this level, instead of panicking, it's better to look at the actual subscription data for the V23 protocol. @Vanarchain

XPL (@Plasma) has raised approximately $370 million in total funding, with major investors including Peter Thiel. Its core strengths lie in native stablecoin support and technical integration with NEAR. The project is currently in the mainnet beta phase. It is recommended to pay attention to the security of its cross-chain bridge and the potential impact of future investor token unlocks on the market. #plasma