If the monthly closes above May 6 MS high on $BTC, I will be a "the bottom is in" believer. Until then, we are still in a HTF downtrend with no confirmed bullish BOS. It appears we will sweep that high, but I'm guessing we will pull back here first. From there, you can look for longs. Looking at $71k area for longs. If $BTC wicks May 6 high for the monthly close, that's one of the confluences to look for short.
Still enjoying vacation, but couldn't help but notice the lovely pump on $BTC. If $BTC daily closes above $67.2k, this confirms a 4D MS bullish shift, and the next target is $82.8k, which is the next MS high. If we get a 5W close above $82.8k, then ATH is next. We have a lot of resistance to get through, but today's daily close is important. If daily confirms with this strong candle, then I would look to long the pullback, and possibly even play the short scalp if I'm not too busy. On the flip side, I have concerns with the equities market. $SPY looks like it could be topping. So money could be rotating down the risk curve for the final top as part of the cycle. There's an SMT with $SPY & $NDAQ. That would work against $BTC, and it would make sense to fool people into thinking this is the bottom on $BTC. We had a false top in 2021, why can't we have a false bottom in 2026.
I thought bears were gonna push the price down going into the daily close, but apparently bulls are holding it down for now. No confirmation of anything yet, but $BTC reclaimed the POC and flipped it to support with 2 candle confirmations and increasing volume. I would like to see price get accepted above the VAH and a close above the SH for a move higher to $67k. If invalidated, then a move to $62-$63k. That fails, then $59-$61k
What a beautiful summer it has been so far. Hope everyone is enjoying theirs. I've been less on the charts and traveling more. Caught some nice plays, I can't complain about. I've been looking at some charts, and it appears $BTC is preparing for a nice move in either direction. I'm leaning towards a small dip here to go higher, then dump past the June low. Alts I'm watching: $PUMP, $AERO, $QNT, $ADA, $ONDO, $XPL, $UNI. There could be long potential setups. $SPX and $QQQ are also very interesting. But they have resistance to get through. I've started rotating back into tech slowly. I could see another nice run in tech. I'm using $XLK as confluence.
