The more fintwit posts I see about valuation without acknowledging the bear case (downwards revisions in capex) the more it feels like a recipe for disaster in the AI names

Man we're 3 points off highs and people are revenge full porting. Time to collar up even more

Really looking forward to Warsh speaking in riddles and sending the markets down 80 points

Putting on a 102 / 122 collar on Monday, weekly expiration https://t.co/VZAXSM92gQ

Sold the puts earlier this year for 86 cents, and closed the position out today by repurchasing them for 17 cents.

A cool breeze drifts in from the window and ruffles your shirt, your hands tremble as you delicately get the last Marlboro Red out of the pack. An indoor smoke wouldn't hurt anyone, you say to yourself. It's 2030, 2 years after the AI Bubble blew up. Your Koyfin blasts a notification across your phone: "SKHY renamed to SKHYQ as delisting imminent, Sanjay Mehrotra in talks to raise PIK debt at 35% from Fortress, Samsung acquired for $200 Million by Constellation Software" Adobe, Intuit, and GoDaddy are now the largest companies in the world, and the S&P is nearing 15,000 as pods continue to short delisted semis and purchase E&S insurers. Laptops have dropped to $100 a piece, streets are overrun with the homeless burning discarded H200s and B300s for heat, Credo has rebranded as a Hooka Company. AI usage is strictly outlawed, San Francisco has been turned into lawless wasteland. It wasn't bombed or anything - Newsom just won another 2 elections. Nebius and Coreweave data centers were purchased by Blackstone and Apollo, and transformed into Senior Experiential Entertainment centers with Bingo and the Golf Channel on 24 7. Social security benefits have been increased 200%, and it's now illegal to sell homes at prices lower than the previous sale. Blue Owl is $100 a share, their new Senior Organ trade has made up for private credit losses. For old times sake, you open IBKR, it's been months since you logged in. 600 shares of Micron at 25 cents, 1000 SKHYQ at a penny, and $50 of cash after Constellation bought Samsung. A smirk breaks across your face and you shake your head - you light the cigarette to the gentle sound of soothing waves. "Gosh, fintwit was right".

> sir, memory is crashing > buy the mag7 > sir, rates are surging > only the mag7 can raise capital, buy the mag7 > sir, a tanker just blew up > wouldn't have happened if it was a mag7 tanker, buy the mag7 > sir, regional banks are crashing > wow, buy the mag7 > taiwan has been nuked > horrible, buy some mag7

S&P walking me like a dog the last 3 months

If it feels like things have been crazy, that's because they are. S&P 500 sectors increasingly behave like warring factions rather than cordial peers, and correlations have gone haywire. On my end, I've been paring back exposure to rate vulnerable names and adding to cheap value setups where sizable repurchase programs tilt the odds. I've compiled and benchmarked all 43 positions, here's what I'm looking at.

I rue the day in June I decided to delta hedge WDC by selling calls instead of collaring