The development of AI is entering a classic "prisoner's dilemma" phase: Everyone recognizes that rapid advancement may bring risks, but no one dares to slow down first— because if you slow down, it doesn’t mean your competitors will too. The U.S. can’t stop → because China might not stop China can’t stop → because the U.S. might not stop OpenAI can’t stop → because Anthropic might not stop Google can’t stop → because xAI might not stop The inevitable outcome is that everyone must continue accelerating. Conclusion: The singularity bull market continues.
A 25-basis-point rate hike in September is almost certain. A 50-basis-point hike is also possible. If they do hike by 50, it could actually present a great opportunity to buy the dip. If only a 25-basis-point hike occurs in September, another 25-basis-point hike is likely by the end of October. From September through year-end, rates would likely oscillate in this manner. We’re more eager to see market movements after the midterm elections.
The U.S. midterm elections have officially entered the general election phase, with the vast majority of party primaries now concluded. This year, all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats will be up for election simultaneously. Based on current polling trends, Democrats hold a clear advantage in the House, while the Senate—once heavily favorable to Republicans—is now shifting in Democrats’ favor. One change this year has stood out to me particularly: The Democrats have finally begun to reflect and adjust. This year, they have noticeably reduced the prominence of social issues like LGBTQ rights and identity politics in national campaigns, no longer allowing these topics to dominate the election narrative. Instead, they’ve refocused their main efforts on: the economy, inflation, and cost of living— along with Trump’s governing record. These are precisely the areas where Democrats have become truly competitive again. Moreover, this year’s midterm elections have introduced a new generation of promising Democratic political figures. For example: Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore… These individuals—regardless of age, image, background, or national electoral potential—are not to be underestimated and could very well become core contenders for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. In 2028, as long as the Democrats don’t ultimately nominate AOC, the Republicans will face a tough challenge. Whether it’s JD Vance or Marco Rubio, neither will find it easy to defeat a young, moderate Democratic candidate with minimal political baggage who can effectively appeal to swing-state voters.