

21-28 September was a key week as it marked the end of Q3, and the current local tops on Bitcoin, majors, and several alts, and local bottom on stablecoin dominance. It also marked several other key events, as everything in the markets are interconnected and interdependent, and you must pay close attention to play the brutal Q4 to your advantage: - top of daily OI in Btc, - breakdown of Eth and Sol against Btc from resistance, and Btc Dominance ex-stables finding key support (major/alt weakness since), - higher low in DVOL (BTC Vol index) and VIX (stock's vol index) before breaking out, - acceleration/breakout on the Dollar, - weekly breakdown on oil (you are being told Oil is going higher, so I would caution on believing their lies), - breakdown at support on Gold. As a reminder, the current local tops may be soon taken, but only with marginal higher highs (although, it may only be lower highs for many majors or alts, or even for Btc). 19-26 October was mentioned as a key week back in August, based on Btc's bear market behaviour. I assume, therefore next week is going to be an important week, perhaps as it marks the higher or lower highs across the board. Stocks can then make the last push towards 8000, unless just a lower high or sideways. The next FOMC is in 10 days, and currently it stands as a pause. This can trigger either a pump or dump, depending on the derisking due to midterms, and pricing in the December FOMC (which still largely viewed as a hike that's already pretty much booked). The next key week is 2-9 November, which was again calculated based on Btc's bear market behaviour. I assume, due to midterms, it'll be indeed another important week, and I suspect stocks, Btc and crypto shall all break down then, as long-end yields top (in case they take out local tops). I would be prepared for at least the first wave of major capitulations in risk assets. And Gold could bounce initially, back towards 4500 (or even the old target, 5000), before moving down to 3300-3500, setting up the long-awaited generational buying opportunity by February 2027. GG.

This fractal business could still play out on Bitcoin - The local journey to new highs and back down to 75k. 1. Due to the liquidity overhead, this may be the most probable scenario, despite around mid-to-late October bulls' luck shall completely run out, and the aggressive descent to new lows to be started soon. It should be a choppy and volatile meltup to a marginal higher high above the yearly open at 87.6k (as long as after reaching 85k local support is re-established on 83.5k). 2. Other than the full rejection at 85k and move down to 80k (and possibly soon to 75k), the other option is still a blast through 85k to the marginally higher high for that final rejection. 3. Be careful with expecting 90k, as they may rejecting right above the yearly open. Also, as mentioned before, I'm not seeing the 90k+ scenarios (90-92k, or 95-105k) as reasonable probability anymore since we entered Q4 already and bears are taking over. A deviation to 78k can certainly occur, but don't bank on it as they may just get to 75k faster than you think. 4. Some of MMs possible liquidity hunting shenanigans to watch out for in this range: - Pump to 85k, reject back to 80k (possibly even with a deviation to 78k), then take the highs at 87.6k+ for a final rejection. - Take the highs, then back to 83.5k and then take the highs again, or double top for a final rejection.



