

Credit risk for AI reaches unprecedented heights. As future spending commitments reach $825 billion, Oracle's 5Y CDS surpasses 300bps, SpaceX surpasses 200bps, and Meta sets a record 119bps. A financial competition is emerging from the AI weapons race. The cost of insuring the dream against default continues rising.

Since July, the Chinese government has been purchasing $2.5 billion worth of equities ETFs every day in an effort to boost the market following the AI decline. What's crazy is that China's government receives 10 times the average daily ETF inflow, which are just approximately $218 million. This would be comparable to the US Treasury purchasing $100 billion in ETFs every day.

Though they are not immune, community banks' deposit franchises may prove stickier than those of their larger brethren if AI agents like Meta's Muse push depositors towards better rates. Zero-cost deposits at smaller banks fared better during the 2022–2023 hiking cycle, although any margin hit could be amplified by the group's increased reliance on spread revenue. While commercial-focused banks like Banc of California are probably shielded from changes in customer behaviour, low-deposit-beta institutions like Community Financial might be less affected by interest-bearing deposit fees.

According to Bloomberg, Berlin is lobbying for EU limitations on Chinese machinery, chemicals, and possibly pharmaceuticals in Germany. The German trade gap with China has reached an all-time high of about €108 billion. The export giant of Europe now demands more stringent import regulations. The 350,000 annual cap on Chinese hybrid vehicles would only be the beginning. By year's end, Germany needs suggestions for more sectors.



