To be honest, this move is absolutely wild—even wilder than altcoins. Today, I still advised maintaining a “watch but don’t touch” approach toward semiconductors, and it seems I was right. This kind of breakdown-level decline will definitely create an opportunity to buy the dip. You might not buy at the absolute bottom, but waiting will make it safer. https://t.co/xcmjUBUJt2
The selection results have been announced, marking the removal of a major source of uncertainty from the market. I. U.S. Stocks 1. The recent sharp decline in U.S. stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, was due to two factors: (1) prior excessive gains placing the market in a natural correction phase, and (2) the inherent fragility of this correction phase, which had already priced in prior uncertainty. 2. However, I still have no immediate intention to trade U.S. stocks. For example, two of my usual targets are $INTC and $LITE. Intel has fallen too far and broken key support levels; technically, it requires considerable time to recover, and any V-shaped rebound would likely involve extreme volatility and poor trading experience. Meanwhile, Litecoin has added the noise of a potential acquisition by Marvell. For now, I’ll continue observing within my core holdings. II. Cryptocurrency 1. If Bitcoin’s daily candle today closes with a pin bar, it could serve as a signal of reversal. Confirmation, however, would require breaking above the previous minor high at $78,500. 2. From there, we’ll assess the wave structure, pattern, and strength to determine whether this is merely a rebound or a full reversal. Honestly, I expected Bitcoin’s price action to be brutal under Wall Street’s influence—but I didn’t expect it to be this stubborn. It’s been incredibly grueling.
Recently, news reports suggest Iran’s stance seems noticeably less firm than before, while Trump gives the impression of being calm and unhurried. Consider this: without direct conflict, there’s only verbal pressure and delays. Oil prices have remained elevated without hindering the prior rally in U.S. stocks; after the stock market surge, leverage was re-added, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have declined, and the dollar index remains strong—equities, bonds, and currencies all performing well. If I were in their position, I wouldn’t be in a rush either. When facing a superpower like the United States in a war of attrition, what advantages do you have beyond your population’s greater resilience?
Will $AMD become the white horse of the semiconductor industry? Let’s be clear: earnings reports are important, but when they’re released matters just as much. The same strong report can lead to vastly different stock price reactions depending on the stock’s current level and market sentiment—even if the difference is just a few days, or even tens of hours. While earnings reports can cause significant short-term volatility, I believe the most crucial point in analyzing them is to look at them over time—to determine whether the company is on the right growth path. If the answer is “yes,” then you can assess from a medium- to long-term perspective whether the current price reflects overvaluation or an unjustified sell-off.
Oil prices broke $100 in a single day, but the market may have been conditioned by the boy who cried wolf—now it’s in a state of cautious skepticism. High oil prices broadly suppress all risk markets. If oil can remain below $100 and steadily decline over time, the market will gradually regain confidence. Then, it comes down to each asset’s own fundamentals and cycles (U.S. stocks, crypto, gold, and silver each have their own distinct dynamics).
A buddy DM’d me asking if I’d “kicked the bucket” since I hadn’t posted in two days—thanks for the concern. Here’s a quick update: Only longtime followers who’ve been paying attention to Guilin know how far ahead and how accurate my predictions have been. “Bad news doesn’t cause a drop?” “Bear-to-bull transition?” “Bull market is here?” “Pullbacks are opportunities?” Alright, now everyone knows. But when exactly did I tell you all this? Didn’t I warn you to avoid gold, silver, and oil? Didn’t I tell you to stay away from storage and AI for now? Didn’t I say crypto was the relative strongest? Didn’t I tell you to give your love to your native ecosystem? Honestly, there hasn’t been much to say these past two days—Bitcoin remains in consolidation, no clear short-term pattern has emerged, let alone any major breakout. So it’s still unclear whether this is just a bounce from oversold conditions or a true reversal. Trading? What’s there to trade in this market? The only long position I took last week on the spike is still held—I didn’t exit at the first target of 78,500, and I won’t exit at the second either. Wait it out. Over the next two weeks, we’ll see the outcome of the U.S. election and APEC—let’s see if either triggers a shift. Also, still E-Guardian.
Chen Guiling’s Trading Notes October 31, 2026 (October Summary) I. Summary Starting from late September, the overall strategy has been to observe more and trade less—a mindset fully maintained throughout October. I commend myself for finally aligning execution with intention: I didn’t just talk about staying out—I actually stayed out. The result: despite holding a high proportion of my portfolio in high-volatility assets, I achieved—Bitcoin’s decline < portfolio drawdown < Ethereum’s decline. II. Core Strategy 1. I continue to believe the broader uptrend in Bitcoin since $57K is not yet complete, so my principle remains: stay in the market. But in challenging conditions, I avoid reckless moves—only making tactical adjustments (hedging, T+0 trades) when opportunities arise to slightly limit drawdowns. 2. Consolidation: Previously, I traded many assets outside crypto—including Intel, LITE, QCOM, COHR, gold, silver, and crude oil. Early on, I gradually exited these positions; after taking a stop-loss on LITE, I halted all discretionary trades. Once I observed crypto’s relative strength, I consolidated all positions into crypto assets. I continue monitoring other markets but no longer trade them. III. Market Outlook 1. As previously noted, the AI correction isn’t limited to semiconductors—even giants like Google saw 10% intraday swings. I predicted they’d drag the Nasdaq lower, and under such conditions, Bitcoin and crypto couldn’t possibly rally alone. Meanwhile, crude oil continues rising, while gold and silver are being crushed. The overall market environment has reached extreme negativity; the fact that Bitcoin has held up this well is already a sign of strength. 2. Currently (Figure 1), the Nasdaq correction has occurred in three phases (A-B-C). The third decline has now reached nearly a 1:1 ratio with the first decline and has tested the daily SMA200. If you believe the U.S. stock market is entering a major bear market, treat this level as the bull-bear divide. If you believe the broader market won’t enter a prolonged bear phase, then any false breakdown below this line represents a clear buying opportunity. 3. Personally, I feel gold is everywhere right now—but even gold has collapsed. So even when bottom-fishing, thorough research is essential. What I want to emphasize:强者恒强 (the strong remain strong). Amidst global financial market corrections, crypto has demonstrated remarkable resilience. When conditions improve, Bitcoin-led crypto will likely outperform even more strongly. Therefore, I will continue focusing exclusively on crypto. After all, true traders have limited time—and even more limited capital. This market has taught us: diversification can spread risk—but it can also spread losses. The hotter the market was before, the more terrifying the correction. All we can do is what’s within our control: maintain respect for the market, reduce leverage during tough times, avoid overtrading, and do our best to mitigate risk (risk cannot be eliminated entirely). Lie low now—and wait for spring after winter.
To be honest, it’s a bit scary. 1. I thought Google’s pre-market drop yesterday was too steep and expected some recovery during regular trading hours to recoup some of the losses—but it didn’t bounce back at all. 2. I expected Intel to be around $75, but now it’s already down to $68 in pre-market trading—this is terrifying. 3. I can only be glad I completely cut ties with this sector early on. 4. Although the market now feels like gold is everywhere, I guess we still have to wait it out for a while—just looked at crude oil again, and it’s back at $104.
Regarding Intel, we were discussing it in the community the other day. It hit $75, but unfortunately, I don’t have any cash left to buy the dip—all my recent funds went into crypto. https://t.co/E507tzDTP4
