2,493 coins on @Pumpfun hit $100k market cap last week. 90% are dead: back under $7k, zero volume. half of them were dead 40 minutes after hitting 100k. > 60% dead within the hour > 82% within a day > 89% within 3 days here's how the typical one lives and dies: 1. created and bonded in the same block. the dev buys out the whole bonding curve and migrates it in the same slot. 2. hits 100k in its first minute on pumpswap (71% of them). 3. peaks ~15 minutes later, around $400k. 4. dies 7 minutes after the peak. 89% lost 90%+ of their value in a single minute. and the few that get there the slow way live: > same-block launches: half dead 36 min after 100k > coins that bonded 10+ min after creation: half still alive after 2.4 days before you ape, check one thing: was it created and bonded in the same block? if yes, you're not early. you're the exit liquidity.

i audited $agora (@agora_elysium) to see if it’s worth buying. it’s the first protocol on elysium outside the launchpads where i see real users. the problem is where the money goes. agora routes every swap to the best pool across all elysium launchpads. plus limit orders, bubble maps, a bridge from hyperevm. the router went live nov 1. in ~28h: 948 trades, $136k, 191 wallets their stats page is honest. the fees it shows match the fee wallet on-chain. the token is clean. fair launch on kleos oct 30. ~$268k mcap, top 10 = 17% of volume. 14 sniper wallets took 35% in the first 5 min. all sold, except the dev no hidden bundle, no bot farm. the dev bought 4.8% at launch for 1.49 hype and never sold a single token. the money: the #1 token traded on agora is. $agora. 23% of the router’s volume. $agora has a 1% buy/sell tax. 80% goes to the creator. the dev claimed 27.9 hype (~$2.3k) of it. that’s 6x the app’s total revenue (4.8 hype). even per day, the tax earns ~2x the app. the docs list that tax as revenue to split: 30% buyback & burn, 5% to holders in hype. when someone asked, the team said the split covers revenue “generated on the agora website not from the coin”. result: the 27.9 hype is in the dev’s personal wallet. nov 1, agora tweeted “now it actually pays the people holding it”. holders have received 0 hype. the fee wallet that should fund buybacks and payouts has never sent a single tx. the “1% burned” = the dev sending 10M tokens from their own launch bag to 0x0 that cost him ~$26. the “first dev buybacks” = 1.6 hype for 2.19M $agora. never burned. still in the dev’s wallet. one wallet owns the router, the limit orders and the v2 fee switch. no multisig, no timelock, no audit. top 10 wallets hold 32.6%. heavier than homer (25%) the two biggest hold 7.85% and 5.29%, bought at ~$22-29k mcap. sitting on ~10x. today the app makes money, the token makes more, and both stay with the team. fees have only been live for ~25h, so it’s early. the one thing i’m watching is the first tx out of the fee wallet. if buybacks and holder payouts start flowing, $agora becomes the only token on elysium backed by real usage. if they don’t, you’re buying a good app whose revenue never reaches you. not financial advice. just reading the chain.

i don't recommend trading memecoins. you'd have better odds at a casino. but if you really want to do it, here's how: > trade 12h a day, 6 days a week. > you need to have seen every coin that ran yesterday. most new coins are reruns. > one narrative = 50 coins. only one wins: good image, right name, right ticker, right fees distribution etc ... the rest get vamped > if you're new, don't trade for 2-4 weeks. just study what bonded and why > timing beats narrative. the same coin deployed 5 min later can run because nobody saw the first one > the coin has to explain itself in one second. clean image, simple ticker, tweet framed bullish > no links or a random tweet = skip > fresh tweet (10-30 sec old) = more bullish. new narratives often hit $12-15k on attention alone > under $8k and interesting: quick buy > above $10-12k: open the chart first. check dev % and sniper % > very low "fees paid" = probably bundled. dig before you buy > buying at $4k is your insurance: it buys you time to decide hold or sell rule #1 is "make it your full-time job".

i audited the 6 launchpad tokens on elysium on-chain. who bundled, who’s botted, and who holds them. $boxa: > oct 27, launch block: wallet 0x35fe…b1c4 funds the $boxa creator. 50 wallets it funded buy in the first minute and end up with 55% of supply > oct 29, 04:04 utc: 0x35fe deploys a contract (0x4432…8480) 40 bundle wallets dump 43.8% of supply into it > then 40 brand-new wallets, also funded by 0x35fe, call it once each. every call sells a batch and buys it back in the same tx, straight into the new wallet > 47 minutes later, the bundle looks like 40 strangers who each “bought” ~1% on the market. > cost of the disguise: 132 hype (~$11.7k) in fees > today those 40 wallets still hold 36.5% of $boxa. 33 of them have made exactly one tx in their life > only 40% of $boxa sits in wallets that trade anything else $kleos: > launch: 11 wallets took 57.5% in the first 5 min > the creator bought 49m in the launch block and staked it in the same tx > 3 wallets bridged in from hyperevm within one minute, 15h before launch, then bought at positions 6, 7 and 8 of the launch block. 88m for ~3 hype > two of them later burned their 59m. that’s most of the “burn” you see > creator + the third wallet = 8.4% of supply staked. no lockup > launch snipers still hold another 10.6% directly > but: 52% of supply is with real holders (712 of 990 wallets). best spread of the big three $stockium: > on oct 30, 7 wallets bridged in 152m $stockium (15% of total supply) within 8 minutes. 5 of them have never made a tx since > a 17.8m holder got its first gas from stockium’s own buyback wallet > real holders: 42% of the supply on elysium $elysp: > 7-wallet bundle with one funder took 21% at launch and dumped all of it > 64% of supply now sits with real holders. highest of the 6 > but zero burn, zero buyback, and -72% from ath $eos: > launched nov 1. in the launch block the eleos contract sent $eos to 30 fresh wallets > 24 of them have never signed a tx. they hold 43% of supply $elyxa: > in the launch minute, 6 wallets bridged in from hyperevm, each with exactly 5 txs, bought 1.9–2.5% each > they still hold 13.4% > launch buyers overall still hold 28%. 137 holders total share of supply held by real holders: $elysp 64% $elyxa 56% $kleos 52% (+20% in staking) $stockium 42% $boxa 40% $eos too new to score

$1.3m tvl and 2.27m+ $pros staked in 48 hours. estimated apy: 42%. quick context: @Farooxyz lets you stake $pros and get stpros back. your pros earns native staking rewards (they accrue through the pros/stpros exchange rate), and stpros stays transferable, usable across defi. "liquid" doesn't mean instant redemption. unstaking still takes ~24h to 14 days. the real exit door of any lst is the market. and a market is only as deep as the tvl behind it. more stpros → deeper pools → more protocols willing to take it as collateral → more reasons to mint stpros. liquidity compounds. the first 48 hours are the head start on that loop. next up: $tbpros in late november, a separate token for rwa yield. stpros stays pure staking yield.

the hacker’s @aave position: → 60m stolen usdt as collateral → 19,762 weth borrowed, never coming back → health factor: 1.065 if eth goes +6.5% (~$2,366), bots start liquidating it. the hacker paid ~$3,036 per eth, ~35% above market. https://t.co/pkXwUaqJPy

crypto = casino. i used to argue hard against people who said that. i didn't want them to be right. but i think they are. take crypto's top revenue protocols this week. remove the stablecoin issuers and the chains. what's left is what people pay for. the top 5: 1. @hyperliquid: leverage perps 2. @Pumpfun: memecoin launchpad 3. @Collector_Crypt: pokémon gacha 4. @papertrade_xyz: 1000x perps 5. @Polymarket: betting on events all 5 are casinos. zoom out to the top 20: 12 are casinos, and they make 77% of the revenue. the exceptions: an etf fee, some lending, a couple of dexs, an oracle, a wallet. i still think crypto can be more than a casino.

the 5th biggest revenue business in crypto this week is a pokémon card gacha machine. collector crypt made $5.43M in 7 days. more than polymarket, grayscale or sky. only tether, circle, hyperliquid and pumpfun made more. how it works: > you pay $25 to $2,500 for a "pack" > a random graded pokémon card drops > the machine instantly offers to buy it back for 85-93% of its value > almost everyone says yes last week, $82M of packs were opened. the house kept $5.4M. 6.6 cents on every dollar. for reference, an american roulette wheel keeps 5.3. and the "collectors"? 97% of the card value gets sold straight back to the machine, most of it within seconds. only 2.9% was ever shipped as a physical card. so it's not a card shop. it's a casino. and it's growing fast: > weekly packs opened: $36M in early september → $81M last week (+127%) > weekly revenue: $2.9M → $5.3M

pumpfun just launched a 2-week trading competition with $2.5m in prizes. i looked at the impact it had on the platform's activity on day 1. short answer: no impact. > launches on oct 26: 46,863. the week before averaged 47,440 a day. > after the start (14:14 utc): 26,456 launches. last monday, same hours: 28,004. > pumpfun fees: $1.97m. week average: $1.92m. last monday: $2.34m. > pumpswap fees: $3.08m. week average: $3.10m. activity bounced back from a dead weekend to a normal monday. that's it. day 1 is usually the one with the most activity. if it keeps going like this, pumpfun just threw $2.5m out the window.

i've studied most of the big influencer traders. most of them make their money one of two ways: launching coins with their side wallets, or getting in early on coins launched by their friends. i looked at @Cented7 trades expecting the same. it's not. he made +3,512 sol (~$355k) in the last 2 weeks, while the market is bleeding. 56% of it (+1,981 sol) comes from coins launched neither by his side wallets nor by his friends. the other 43% comes from his own launches. his strategy: > snipes new pumpfun coins ~7 seconds after creation, at ~$5k market cap > same size every time: 3 sol on 73% of coins, then small 0.25 sol adds > cuts losers fast, around -20%, usually in one click > quick flips are break-even: 1,400 coins flipped in under 2 minutes = +72 sol > the money is in the ~500 coins he holds for minutes or hours: +1,786 sol > 65% of his coins come from 146 serial devs he keeps trading snipe a lot, cut fast, let the few winners run.