🚨 A FORMER NEW YORK FED CHIEF IS WARNING ABOUT A $10 TRILLION AI BET Bill Dudley says AI infrastructure spending could exceed $10 trillion if companies carry out their current plans His estimate: the industry may need more than $3 trillion in annual revenue to justify that investment Seven or eight companies are racing to become AI giants He thinks only two or three may dominate The risk also reaches the private credit funds and lenders financing the buildout Some commitments stay off company balance sheets until projects are completed That makes it harder to see who ultimately carries the risk The equipment keeps losing value while investors wait for future revenue And the debt still has to be repaid if those forecasts fall short

$BTC will print such candle when: - Peace deal signed - Hormuz reopens fully - Oil back at least to $60 - Trade stabilizes globally - Fed starts cutting rates - Inflation cools down - Money printer turns back on But war won't end until 2028... https://t.co/CJfkTmA64a

🚨 US GDP AND INFLATION DATA DROP LESS THAN 24 HOURS AFTER THE FED DECISION Both reports arrive tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET If the Fed signals fewer rate hikes ahead, Bitcoin could rise today But inflation above expectations tomorrow could push bond yields higher and put Bitcoin under pressure Inflation below expectations could help the rally continue I'll be watching whether Bitcoin can hold any Fed rally through tomorrow's data

🚨 THE FED CAN HOLD RATES AND STILL SEND BITCOIN LOWER A pause is the expected outcome today Another rate hike in December is already part of market expectations The risk is Warsh signalling a tougher path than investors have priced in More hikes, a faster pace, or rates ending up higher than expected That could push bond yields and the dollar higher, putting pressure on Bitcoin even with no rate change today Altcoins could get hit harder as traders cut exposure to smaller, less liquid assets The decision comes at 2 PM ET, followed by Warsh's press conference at 2:30 If the first BTC pump fades while yields rise, I'll be cautious about chasing the bounce If yields ease and ETH starts gaining against BTC, that would give me more confidence in a broader recovery I'll update this after the press conference with the moves that actually held

🚨 THE FED, ECB AND BANK OF JAPAN WILL ALL SET INTEREST RATES THIS WEEK MON → China: ¥700B for banks TUE → US durable goods + consumer confidence WED → Fed rate decision + press conference THU → US GDP + PCE inflation + ECB rate decision FRI → Bank of Japan decision + US employment costs THREE RATE DECISIONS IN THREE DAYS

3 months ago, Ansem said "buybacks don't actually work." So I checked 16 tokens that pay their holders. I think he was half right. The size of the buyback means nothing. $STONK pays back 87.6% of its market cap a year. It fell 65% this month. $STONK and $PONS are this summer's revenue meta. They started paying in July and August, peaked at ~$17M in September, and now pay ~75% less. $PUMP has paid holders every month since its ICO. $CRV every month since 2020. What moves the price is whether payouts keep growing. Payouts up: median +2.4%. Payouts down: median -19.2%. BTC, same 30 days: -5.2%. So what should you do with this info? Before you buy a token because it have buybacks, ask yourself two questions: How long has it been paying? Is it paying more than last month? Growing right now: $ORE, $PUMP, $CRV, $SKY. Open https://t.co/1F9V6vJYYo and compare the last 30 days with the 30 days before. It's much more useful than you think.

🚨 BREAKING 🇺🇸 JP MORGAN TO LIQUIDATE $330,000,000,000.00 OF U.S. STOCKS ON MONDAY! THEY ARE SELLING AI STOCKS AMID GROWING FEARS THAT MASSIVE AI SPENDING WON’T PAY OFF LOOKS LIKE THEY KNOW THE MARKET WILL CRASH NEXT WEEK... https://t.co/Lfr4RuPxni

This is wild: Last year, 220 people collectively spent ~$150 million on $TRUMP to get a seat at Trump's dinner This time, the wallet in seat #161 of 185 holds just $92 worth of president's crypto coin Read that again. You can have a dinner with POTUS for less than $100 https://t.co/4BJjPmzLU8

This is the MOST IMPORTANT Airdrop Table I have ever compiled > 43 out of 46 airdrop since 2024 trade below their first day > median: -94.72% > only 3 are still green: $HYPE, $LIT, $ASTER > all 3 do buybacks with revenue Sell the airdrop at TGE. Unless the project have revenue and buys back token.

🚨 BEFORE MARKETS OPEN MONDAY, LOOK AT WHAT THE FED IS FACING Markets reopen Monday after another warning from the inflation data September CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August Prices jumped 0.6% in a SINGLE MONTH The Fed already raised rates to 3.75% to 4% in September Its next decision comes on OCTOBER 28 And the choices are getting harder If inflation stays hot, FURTHER TIGHTENING remains a risk That would keep pressure on borrowing costs, corporate profits and companies that need to refinance The US government faces the same financing problem on a much larger scale FEDERAL DEBT IS ABOVE $40 TRILLION As cheaper debt matures, replacing it at higher yields adds to the interest bill That pressure builds over time But cutting rates before inflation is under control carries another risk If investors become less confident that inflation will come down, they can demand higher yields to lend for 10, 20 or 30 years The Fed can cut its overnight rate while LONG-TERM BORROWING COSTS STAY PAINFULLY HIGH That is why I’m watching the bond market The 10-year Treasury yield is STILL ABOVE 5% The Benner chart marks 2026 as a year of HIGH PRICES AND SELLING I’m watching the inflation and bond data alongside it Japan has already seen its 30-year yield hit a RECORD 4.235% earlier this month Now Japan heads into another ¥700 billion 20-year bond auction on Tuesday Demand will show what price investors are willing to accept for holding that debt Meanwhile, the New York Fed has up to $5.48 BILLION in Treasury bill purchases scheduled next week, starting Monday Those purchases are PLANNED REINVESTMENTS of principal repayments They do not mark the start of a rate-cutting cycle The risk to watch is a renewed rise in long-term yields while earnings or growth expectations weaken That combination can hurt stocks and long-dated bonds TOGETHER If leveraged investors then face margin calls, selling can spread to otherwise unrelated assets, including gold and Bitcoin Falling prices → Margin calls → FORCED SELLING → More pressure That is a scenario to monitor as the next Fed meeting approaches A green candle won’t tell you whether refinancing has become cheaper WATCH THE YIELDS Follow and turn notifications on for updates