$SPY Nifty how this observation has came into near perfect fruition "My bet is that Step 3 follows. Step 4? TBD but rising wedges often lead to reversals after completion." Those steps were: 3) stocks above the 50D EMA ramped into near overbought territory as SPY made NATH (barely) to complete the rising wedge We are now on step 4.. Correction beginning?
$LLY Alot of chatter on this one.. "As long as this holds above 1274, we can have strong confidence in immediate continuation towards measured targets of 1450, 1518 next." - 2 days ago "I anticipate buyers will look to maintain demand and continue to trade LLY towards the measured target of 1274, 1450, 1518 and then 1645 into EOY." - August 2nd Again, just $10/Mo for alpha.
$SPY As I said 3 years ago.. History doesn't always repeat.. but it often rhymes in 2023.. I put together a compelling thread about how 2011 and 2022 were very similar Once in a life time crash -> 2 year rally - > multi month bear market(2011/2022) -> Possible historical bull market follows. that thread was spot on. Just a look back at the 2011 fractal compared to now. The similarities are still insanely similar. Especially when you look at 2014 V shape recovery to ATH that was then followed by multiple months of low volatility in the form of a rising wedge..
$SPY Peaked at 781.62 as of this time. $1.62 above my target given 6 months ago for this primary wave 3. With $SPY now below the 50D EMA for the second consecutive session. The risk grows as buyers struggle to regain momentum. With each passing day we build below the 50D EMA. The more likely it is that continuation down into the 200D EMA can and will follow next. I remain confident that this is just the start to primary wave 4(red circle 4) as we venture back to $683, $619-$629, $600.
$PLTR Stretched beyond 203 and into 212 to complete this impulsive structure. Earnings right around the corner but pops should continue to get sold here going forward as this fades into 172 and like the 200D EMA over the next several weeks https://t.co/j80KkG7Xrv
$SPY Todays post is about how the bulls can survive to see one more high AND about how the top can be in. This isn't about me being right either way, im just passing information along. The most important note. The Weekly count remains the same. Regardless of whether the top is in now or we see one more high.. WE have been scaling into further dated $SPY puts & have cash ready to add if we see another high. As for the meat and potatoes.. How the Buyers can survive: A possible running flat develops here (see image 1). Demand at 749-759 holds & buyers quickly rebid the 50D EMA and thrust into new ATH. Measured targets would be 787, 797, 801 from there. How the Sellers Take control: This wedge is complete and the look above prior ATH was all the market needed to complete this diagonal. (image 2) Now the sellers need to continue to build price below the 50D EMA & there won't be much stopping this from fading into the 200D EMA. As a trader you should know, nothing good happens below the 50D EMA & if buyers can't rebid that Moving Average. Look out below. Again, i've been adding to $SPY puts for March of 2027. If things want flush now. Fine by me.. if the market wants to push for one more high.. fine by me, I'll buy more. Regardless, I can't be bullish up here more than I am bearish Enjoy the weekend lads
$BTC More clarity now on this correction after a complete impulse down has printed for Wave A of C expecting a relief rally back into 83.5k - 85.7k for Wave B of C Wave C of C suggest continued downside into measured targets of 71.9k - 75k before this correction completes https://t.co/0Dq1wmNzd9
