🚨 PREMARKET MOVERS 🚨 November 2: 30 minutes to the bell 📈 SKE · Skeena Resources · +9.2% · $29.27 📈 IDXX · Idexx Laboratories · +7.9% · $595.00 📈 FOX · Fox · +7.4% · $60.37 📈 GFI · Gold Fields ADR · +5.4% · $34.70 📈 BILI · Bilibili · +5.1% · $13.33 📈 HMY · Harmony Gold Mining · +4.8% · $15.15 📈 XPEV · XPeng · +4.8% · $9.47 📈 RIVN · Rivian Automotive · +4.7% · $12.74 📈 ASX · ASE Technology · +4.7% · $41.35 📈 MAR · Marriott · +4.7% · $417.97 📉 $PGEN · Precigen · -29.1% · $4.92 📉 CHKP · Check Point · -8.0% · $140.01 📉 SSL · Sasol · -5.4% · $16.29 📉 LITE · Lumentum · -5.2% · $796.97 📉 EQNR · Equinor ASA · -5.1% · $46.27 📉 SM · SM Energy · -4.7% · $38.48 📉 RIG · Transocean · -4.5% · $6.63 📉 VG · Venture Global · -4.3% · $14.16 📉 AXSM · Axsome Therapeutics · -4.1% · $138.50 📉 ECO · Okeanis Eco Tankers · -3.8% · $97.46

Lower rates with the 10-year near 4.9% aren't a housing recovery signal: they're pulled-forward demand into a stretched consumer. HD gets the relief rally; it doesn't get the fundamentals that justify one.

Microsoft's operations made $58.0B of cash last quarter. The build took $39.4B. The dividend took $6.8B. The buyback took $4.4B. What survived all three: about $7.5B. Two days later it went to the bond market for up to $25B. $MSFT closed down 1.55% today.

🔴 Form 144: filed to sell · Oct 30 🔴 $LLY · ELI LILLY & Co · Lilly Endowment, INC., Insider · $405.2M 🔴 ANET · Arista Networks · Andreas Bechtolsheim, 10% holder · $45.2M 🔴 STNG · Scorpio Tankers · Lauro Emanuele +1 · $34.8M 🔴 WMT · Walmart · Kumar Suresh, Officer · $20.5M 🔴 NBHC · National Bank Holdings · John Steinmetz, Insider · $12.0M 🔴 LTH · Life Time Group Holdings · Bahram Akradi, Officer · $11.9M 🔴 NP · Neptune Insurance · Trevor Burgess, CEO · $11.9M 🔴 GKOS · GLAUKOS · Navratil Tomas, Officer · $10.6M 🔴 AER · AerCap Holdings · Kelly Aengus, CEO · $9.6M 🔴 FDX · Fedex · Brightman Tracy B, Officer · $8.2M 🔴 GILD · Gilead Sciences · Daniel O'day, Officer/Dir · $7.6M 🔴 MA · Mastercard · Craig Vosburg +1 · $7.0M 🔴 CUBB · Customers Bancorp · Way T Lawrence, Director · $4.2M 🔴 LHX · L3Harris Technologies · Christopher Kubasik, Officer · $4.2M 🔴 MAX · MediaAlpha · Thompson Patrick Ryan, Affiliate · $4.1M 🔴 LECO · Lincoln Electric · Steven Hedlund, Officer · $4.1M 🔴 UAL · United Airlines Holdings · Hart Brett J, Officer · $4.0M 🔴 VLTO · Veralto · Trivedi Surekha, Officer · $4.0M 🔴 TYL · Tyler Technologies · Moore H Lynn JR, Officer/Dir · $3.9M 🔴 FTV · Fortive · Underwood Peter C, Officer · $3.1M 🔴 AYI · Acuity Inc. (De) · Ashe Neil, Officer · $2.9M 🔴 MAS · Masco · Cole Kenneth G., Officer · $2.8M 🔴 AEYE · Audioeye · David Moradi, Officer · $2.6M 🔴 YUM · Yum Brands · Aaron Powell, Officer · $2.5M 🔴 CROX · Crocs · Ronald L Frasch, Director · $2.3M 🔴 ROP · Roper Technologies · Stipancich John K, Officer · $2.0M 🔴 ISRG · Intuitive Surgical · Fredrik Widman, Officer · $2.0M 🔴 NI · Nisource · Jefferson William Jr., Officer · $1.8M 🔴 BROS · Dutch Bros · Dm Trust Aggregator, 10% holder · $1.6M 🔴 REGN · Regeneron Pharmaceutical · Michael S Brown, Director · $1.6M 🔴 R · Ryder System · Havens Thomas M., Officer · $1.6M 🔴 KNTK · Kinetik Holdings · ISQ Global Fund II, 10% holder · $1.2M 🔴 WING · Wingstop · Donnie S Upshaw, Officer · $1.1M 🔴 SLB · Slb Limited · Ralston Dianne B., Officer · $1.1M 🔴 CVNA · Carvana · James Danforth Quayle, Director · $1.0M Form 144 is notice of INTENT to sell, not a completed sale. The confirming Form 4 follows within two business days.

🏁 RACING TO THE BELL 🏁 October 30: today's best & worst with 30 min left 📈 CDNA · CareDx · +20.0% · $85.81 📈 FDXF · FedEx Freight · +14.9% · $126.05 📈 MEOH · Methanex · +13.0% · $70.89 📈 REGN · Regeneron · +12.2% · $919.01 📈 CVCO · Cavco Industries · +11.5% · $610.24 📈 GPN · Global Payments · +10.6% · $94.83 📈 GDDY · GoDaddy · +9.2% · $115.62 📈 BTSG · BrightSpring Health · +9.1% · $65.67 📈 VLTO · Veralto · +8.6% · $113.00 📈 CBOE · Cboe Global Markets · +7.6% · $338.20 📉 $INTC · Intel · -30.6% · $63.87 📉 RDDT · Reddit · -29.8% · $91.03 📉 CACC · Credit Acceptance · -19.6% · $462.64 📉 RBLX · Roblox · -19.1% · $42.46 📉 ILMN · Illumina · -18.6% · $236.12 📉 AGIO · Agios · -18.4% · $30.36 📉 BFAM · BRIGHT HORIZONS · -18.3% · $54.73 📉 TFII · TFI International · -16.2% · $94.28 📉 CSQR · Csquare · -16.1% · $12.55 📉 TWLO · Twilio · -16.0% · $203.25

Big tech told us this week the AI bill is going higher. Today the market sold it, but not the spenders. Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet closed down under two percent. AMD, Dell, Marvell and SanDisk lost ten to fourteen. Fear the spending is too big and you sell the payer. The market sold everyone who gets paid instead. That is a budget cut being priced, not a spending scare. $AMZN

Four AI infrastructure companies reported in 24 hours. All four beat. Growth: Teradyne +70%, Vertiv +61%, GE Vernova +27%, Microsoft +19%. Stocks: Vertiv +16.5%, Microsoft flat, GE Vernova -1.9%, Teradyne -3.2%. The fastest grower was the worst performer. It was not positioning either. Both Vertiv and Teradyne came in down about 18% on the month. What split them was the forward book. Vertiv guided next quarter above the one it just posted and said orders more than doubled. Teradyne beat the top end of its guide, then guided next quarter to what it had just delivered. Growth is not what got paid today.

🚨 MIDDAY MOVERS 🚨 October 29: biggest moves at the half 📈 ADT · ADT · +33.6% · $9.90 📈 GKOS · Glaukos · +31.8% · $239.21 📈 CROX · Crocs · +26.0% · $150.77 📈 BHC · Bausch Health · +23.1% · $8.52 📈 INSM · Insmed · +18.0% · $114.41 📈 CVNA · Carvana · +15.2% · $68.04 📈 TXT · Textron · +14.4% · $89.61 📈 FTAI · FTAI Aviation · +13.9% · $190.44 📈 BOOT · Boot Barn · +13.5% · $128.61 📈 NCLH · Norwegian Cruise · +13.4% · $18.20 📉 $IOVA · Iovance · -35.2% · $9.60 📉 NOW · SERVICENOW · -25.3% · $112.10 📉 SFM · Sprouts Farmers · -21.7% · $48.53 📉 FTNT · Fortinet · -21.5% · $136.70 📉 ALNY · Alnylam · -17.5% · $191.69 📉 HLN · Haleon · -15.3% · $8.47 📉 SCI · Service · -12.9% · $71.75 📉 AUR · Aurora Innovation · -12.1% · $4.47 📉 MRVL · Marvell Technology · -11.8% · $221.87 📉 FTRE · Fortrea · -11.7% · $22.84

🏁 RACING TO THE BELL 🏁 October 28: today's best & worst with 30 min left 📈 $AXGN · Axogen · +31.0% · $49.09 📈 GMAB · Genmab A/S ADS · +28.3% · $57.32 📈 VRT · Vertiv · +17.2% · $244.33 📈 STLA · Stellantis N.V · +13.7% · $4.71 📈 SKHY · SK hynix · +13.1% · $164.37 📈 BEAM · Beam Therapeutics · +12.9% · $28.11 📈 EAT · Brinker · +12.4% · $221.06 📈 ORCL · Oracle · +12.3% · $146.58 📈 FLEX · Flex · +11.7% · $93.14 📈 ICLR · Icon · +11.7% · $204.31 📉 FFIV · F5 · -20.2% · $366.45 📉 ENPH · Enphase Energy · -17.4% · $24.59 📉 LSTR · Landstar System · -17.0% · $140.12 📉 CSGP · CoStar · -15.9% · $26.92 📉 SLS · SELLAS Life · -15.5% · $10.29 📉 LPLA · LPL Financial · -14.6% · $271.30 📉 EDU · New Oriental · -12.5% · $50.73 📉 LOGI · Logitech · -12.2% · $98.14 📉 LII · Lennox International · -12.2% · $326.63 📉 CHRW · C.H. Robinson · -12.2% · $126.11

MSFT printed $90B in revenue while everyone argued about the Fed. Net margin and ROIC held. At this scale, consistent is the flex: most companies would trade a rate cut for numbers like these. $MSFT