This is bullish BTC, probably bearish HYPE
Say you bought BTC at $10k mid-cycle in 2017. Call it 8x as the benchmark. You'd have needed to punt 7 figures in 2017 to have 8 figures today. Or massively outperformed BTC for multiple cycles while avoiding every trap along the way: QuadrigaCX, BitGrail, Cryptopia, March 2020, Luna, Celsius, FTX, etc. Then you'd have had to not give up through the brutal 2018 and 2022 bears, all while dealing with fat, absurdly complicated tax bills that made you want to quit altogether, depending on jurisdiction. Most of the 2017 class went broke or quit, brother.
I'm not gonna LARP like I'm a good trader. I have some edge here and there, but I fucking suck at staying still in between. I manage my risk well and survive through the cycles. I tend to make money, but it's mainly from prices going up while I hold BTC, not talent.
People look at you like you’re a madman if you say we’re in a bull market, meanwhile the weekly and monthly charts both look like tiny dips in a recent uptrend, and we just got hit by a behemoth amount of FUD. Yeah, bears are literally braindead. Much higher by EOY.
Bottom already in (+/- $1,000): 35% Bottom at 72-75k: 35% Bottom below 72k: 15% Actual bear market: 15% 70/30 that the worst is behind us or close to it.
Yeah frankly IDK what will send BTC down at this point. Blackrock or Saylor hacked, maybe satoshi selling coins or quantum cracking BTC. Nothing else can top this FUD, and it comes after a battery of prior FUDs. Bottom is near.
The 2023 crypto VC meta didn’t work for investors because they were overly eager to fund early-stage projects high on promises with little built. Punting cheques at high valuations on promises led to wildly negative VC returns. Is tradFI in a plurge phase?
Turning 5 figures into millions? We're so back, believe in yourself. Giving those millions back? Yeah, I don't have it in me anymore, might be time to hang up the hat. Your inability to extract over time is due to a crippling gambling addiction.
Many think so, but a few hold a vastly different view, and price dictates which fundamental camp is favored (e.g., who's right). Bears winning the narrative war = BTC is cheap. Whether it dips to 72k or bottoms here, I’m a buyer.