Bitcoin started the day as a momentum/ETF-driven breakout trade, but Warsh converted it into a Fed-rate-expectation trade; the resulting yield and dollar spike triggered leveraged-long liquidation, sending from $81.3K to $76.9K before stabilization around the upper-$77K/$79K area

Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin has grown dramatically, with recent reporting putting its market cap around $2 billion. Ripple and partners are also developing an institutional lending market using RLUSD on XRPL

JACKSON HOLE AUG 27-29 — THE BIGGEST WILDCARD OF THE MONTH. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first JH keynote. He's explicitly anti-forward-guidance — market has zero read on him. This is the most uncertain Jackson Hole in a decade.

July 2026 ends as BTC's best month since July 2025 (+9.2%), confirming the historical "green July follows red June" pattern (8th consecutive).

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong emphasizing that AI agents require real-time programmable money and cannot use traditional banks.

If equities price the future, bonds price the cost of money, and commodities price the physical present, global liquidity is the ocean on which all of them float.

What Macro Regime Are We In?

The US has seen 64 consecutive months where inflation has exceeded the Fed’s 2% target 🇺🇸

The 200-day moving average ($74,000) as the critical technical level to reclaim to confirm the end of the bear market

Gold (GC) and Crude Oil (CL): Both show strong net long speculative positions but technicals are deteriorating (weekly RSI and MACD negative), suggesting capital is rotating out of commodities toward equities and crypto.