This has been the most painful market movement since I started trading— Trying to catch the bottom gets me hit, and attempting breakouts also gets me hit. I’ve drawn down $1.1M; if I keep going, the drawdown will only deepen. I’ll wait for the AI sector to bottom out before assessing whether the market has stabilized. That could take another 1–2 months; during this time, I’ll only engage in short-term trades with 3–5% targets.

Target: 100,000. Can we win this time?

Of the 20 midterm elections since 1946, the president’s party has lost seats in the House of Representatives in 18 of them, with gains occurring only in 1998 under Clinton (+4 seats) and 2002 under George W. Bush (+8 seats). An even more significant increase occurred earlier in 1934 under Roosevelt (+9 seats in the House, +9 in the Senate). Currently, capital fleeing to safety is merely routine behavior; whether prices rise or fall going forward still depends on market dynamics.

Subjective opinion: This week and next week represent the recent low point. Please note that I cannot pinpoint an exact price— I can only sense a general range. I myself am currently holding losing positions and have also cut losses. The market panicked last night, and I felt a bit panicked too. But now, upon waking up, my instinct has shifted to intense eagerness— opportunities often arise amid panic. Win, and you make money; lose, and you take a break.

After this black swan event, your outlook on the market over the next three months is:

The market didn’t suddenly snap back into a V-shape. It took 11 hours to rebound from the drop and retrace. What matters most is your own assessment of this market movement. As I said during yesterday’s live stream, I believe this is the critical two-week window: Either this week is the bottom, or we’ll see one more drop next week before finding it. I can’t pinpoint the exact level or timing, but here I’m choosing to take a calculated risk—entering anyway. Why? Because the current price is still 5–13% below my target profit level. I’m treating this as a partial recovery of my previous position. If BTC, ETH, and SOL are all showing local lows, I’ll cut my losses and wait for a deeper pullback before re-entering long. So after today’s drop, BTC was flatlined for a while—but after observing for an hour, I re-entered long. I managed to scalp a small profit, set my stop-loss, and am now waiting for the plan to unfold. Trading has no certainty—every trade is a gamble against uncertainty. It’s undeniably hard, but that’s precisely what makes it compelling. Even when I place a trade, I’m nervous—wondering if this one will actually profit. I don’t pretend now that it’s “obviously the bottom” just because the price bounced back. But I stick to my plan. If the plan is sound, then even a stop-loss is the right decision. Sure, now that prices are rising, I feel better and more at ease—but that’s just psychology.

Trading is a battle with yourself. You don’t need to prove to others whether your trades are right or wrong, nor do you need to care whether others are bullish or bearish. Over the course of a year, your wallet will tell you everything.

Back to trading, I reopened my BTC position last night, treating it as a short-term trade; if it’s not stopped out, I’ll hold it long-term. https://t.co/4iETuaQQ0Q

Since taking long positions at 59,500, and after closing all positions on October 7: ETH dropped 11%, SOL dropped 14%, BTC dropped 5%. I only re-entered once on October 15, and then exited with a small stop-loss afterward. The core principle is this: if a spring isn’t complete, it’s not a spring at all. If you treat every pin bar as a spring and enter every time, you’ll face nine instances where entering without exiting leads to a stop-loss right where you started. An incomplete spring is no spring at all. That’s why, after my single long position was stopped out, I’ve remained on the sidelines ever since— preferring to wait for a confirmed right-side spring via LPS rather than guessing whether it’s one. Otherwise, every entry brings endless wear and tear.

Many people are still arguing whether it’s a bull market or not. If you say it’s not a bull market, look at the rebound—from the low to the high, BTC, ETH, and SOL have risen 50–100%. But if you say it is a bull market, the rally feels too short—just three days of upward movement, followed by prolonged consolidation. That doesn’t match most people’s expectation of a bull market, where prices rise every day. So, brother, forget about labels like bull or bear market—they’re just terms. Even if this is a bear market, does that mean you should walk away from a 50–100% rally and do nothing? We’re here to speculate and make money—not to debate whether it’s a bull or bear market. Whether it’s a bull or bear market, if you can make money, it’s a good market.