
Timothy Peterson
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This time *is* different. The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) comprises ten indicators including manufacturing hours, unemployment , new orders, consumer goods, building permits, stocks, credit conditions, interest-rate spread, and consumer expectations. The LEI is treading water. For over 50 years, it bounced back from the bottom, signaling a new boom from an old bust. But now it struggles. The Bitcoin Investment Handbook shows how to read this signal (p 649-650).

Based on two weeks of October price behavior, a new ATH in 90 days may not happen. This was predicated on Bitcoin reaching $88k, or -30% from its ATH. I thought this was reasonably possible in October or at least by November. But looking at historical data, there is a clear channel in the 3rd week of October that delineates Bitcoin's 4Q trajectory-for the entire period. Bitcoin appears easily headed for the bearish track. Maybe this time is different, but it would break 15 years of history.
