Midterms are tomorrow. The market is already pricing the noise. Stocks are down on the daily view, oil just faded hard on more talk about talks, and yields are still elevated. The 30,000-foot view shows the same thing it always does: price is waiting for a real reason to move. Election night can shake the tape. It does not change the levels that matter. Does the dip find buyers, or does the long end decide the week?
The Fed is basically taking a nap tomorrow. Oil getting a little cheaper does not mean the grown-ups made up. Stocks are green because oil took a small step back. Brent is near $114. WTI is near $100. That is people whispering about a deal, not a deal with a signature and a handshake. The waterway is still playing hard to get. Israel is voting. The U.S. midterms are next week. Oil has more plot twists than a soap opera. Tomorrow’s written statement is the trailer. Warsh’s press conference is the movie. Not raising rates tomorrow is not the credits rolling. It is the intermission. Yields are still near 5%. The rent did not get cheaper. The landlord just stepped out for snacks. Follow what price does, not the headline. “No hike today” is not “we are done.” It is “we will talk again after the popcorn.” Does Warsh keep a December hike on the menu, or does he let the bond market cook?
Big Tech earnings week is here - $MSFT, $GOOGL, and $AMZN all lining up with their revenue and EPS estimates. MSFT looking solid, GOOGL trying not to search for support, and AMZN hoping those numbers don’t leave it in the red zone. Who’s delivering the goods this quarter? 📈 #Earnings #MSFT #GOOGL #AMZN #Stocks
$META beat on sales. The earnings number is why it is red. Reported EPS came in about 41% under the estimate. Revenue was fine. The AI bill and the one-time charges did the damage. The daily chart shows the drop after the print, and price is now working toward that yellow demand zone underneath. A zone is not a buy button. What would actually matter is structure. A higher high and higher low. A real impulse off the zone. Then a pullback into fresh demand. Until that shows up, this is just a decline looking for a floor. Follow price, not the rectangle. The zone can bounce. It can also get run over. Does that yellow box hold, or is META still paying for the AI party? *Not Financial Advice!* Just a hypothetical trade plan setup Tiger's pointing at. Do your own due-diligence.
💰💰Couple hot-ticket earnings coming out after the bell today. Ads and autos. One spends on AI. One spends on robots. - $META - revenue about $64.7B, EPS about $6. The question is whether the ad machine still pays for the AI bill. A beat on sales with a warning on spend is the classic Meta two-step. - $TSLA - revenue about $28.4B, EPS about $0.43. Deliveries already landed: 486,532, above the analyst guess, still down from last year’s record. Energy storage was the soft spot. The car count is known. The margin is the mystery. Both after the close. Follow the reaction, not the estimate. A beat is not a new trend. Which one actually earns its keep? #EarningsCalendar
Warsh flew to Bangkok, sat down with the IMF, and managed to say a lot without telling you the one thing you wanted. No real hint on an October hike. He said the Fed is “not in that business anymore,” which is a polite way of saying stop asking. Price stability is still the job. Other central banks are tightening too, and his favorite line was “no free riders.” Nobody gets to stay easy while everyone else hikes. He also likes AI. It will make economies richer. The road there will be “very bumpy,” which is central-bank for buckle up. Hot CPI, hot PPI, and the chair still will not preview the next move. The real date is the Fed meeting on Oct 27–28. Follow price into that, not the Bangkok small talk. He talked. Did he actually say anything?
The 1-hour looks friendly for the left half of the picture below if you're comparing possible Gold buys to Yields. However, the daily half on the right is still holding the knife. Gold’s hourly is green and the 10-year is slipping. Easy to call that a buy, but... zoom out! Daily gold is still well off the highs, living near $4,100. Daily yields are still up near 5%. That’s not a new uptrend. That’s a bounce inside a drop. 💡Pro Tip: "When in doubt, zoom out." The hourly is the appetizer. The daily is the bill (and a potentially expensive one at that). 📢 Repeat this ten time: "I will not catch falling knives!" 🔪🗡️🔪🗡️
⚠️Non-Farm Payrolls missed. 🔴NFP +29k vs 90k. Prior revised down to 133k. 🔴Unemployment 4.2%. Earnings +0.1% vs 0.3%. Soft labor. 🔴Wage heat cooled with it. First reactions on the board: - $US10Y dumped toward 5.16%, - $DXY slipped under 101.70, - $SP500 and $NASDAQ spiked. - $Gold ripped toward $4,220, then gave it back. - $Dow faded the spike. - $Bitcoin dumped. - $WTI popped, then sold off toward $88. October just got harder. The bounce only sticks if yields stay offered. Crude oil can still shove them back up. Does this miss hold into the cash close… or is this the start of some liquidity sweeps? #EconomicCalendar #NFP #UnemploymentRate
(1/5) Today's Fed Central Bank Speeches Thread 🧵 Three Fed names today. One of them actually moved the calendar. - Austan Goolsbee - President, Chicago Fed. Manufacturers Q&A. Color. - Alberto Musalem - President, St. Louis Fed. Process speech. Stance still easy. - John Williams - President, New York Fed, and Vice Chair of the FOMC. Center of the table. Took the heat off October, left the door open later this year. Same day, three jobs. Follow Williams for the path. 👇
(1/3) USD & Macro thread 🧵 U.S. heatmap before the next gauntlet. USD beat rate on that card: 66.7%. Stocks 55.6%. Growth and labor have been the bid — NFP 162k vs 55k, claims a little tight, retail hot. Inflation mixed: CPI/PCE in line, PPI hotter. Soft spots: manufacturing PMI and JOLTS/ADP. That’s the setup into this week’s red folders. Not a forecast.👇(cont'd)
