avatar
PILTR

Following0Followers (X)3.13KPosts257Likes3.32K
avatar

$BTC order flow > Price continues grinding higher. > Funding moving from positive to neutral > OI slowly expanding again. > Spot CVD trending lower > Perp CVD largely flat. > Coinbase premium remains negative. Interpretation: Long crowding is being reduced. proportionally short positioning enters while price holds. Spot demand isn’t leading this move. Internals continue to weaken beneath price. -> seems for now more like a positioning rotation Structure remains stable for now. But if price starts rolling over, the current positioning leaves room for a corrective move lower -> basically in line with the thesis for today but price is not reacting accordingly for now

avatar

$BTC Pretty much exactly as planned We got the corretive retest into the wVWAP/ AVWAP and rejected accordingly. Positioning remains unchanged. What I want to see now is a clean break below range VAL & ideally an hour close below it & ML to confirm continuation into my long POI Today is FOMC, and for the first time we'll have Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. I'll keep you updated. So far, everything remains on track.

avatar

$BTC short scalp Took another 30% off here. > correction level is currently sitting on weekly VWAP and a 15m FVG. > The sequence remains active, with target levels still pointing into my long POI > sitting in front of range VAL & monday low - both potentially support zones -> rotation higher still on the table Ideal scenario: > Bounce into the correction box > Short back down into the target zone > Flip directly into the long into 69k+ & short back down into new lows from 70+ I don’t trade these sequence rotations very often, but this market has been respecting them surprisingly well throughout the ranges If price extends lower first, the correction box shifts lower with it, so the framework stays the same.

avatar

$BTC plan LTF sequence played out almost exactly as planned. > Anyone following the setup should have hit full TP +4.3R (I closed 64.2 already) > MRVAH reclaimed & fundamental looking constructive > larger sequence activated with target levels above 68k -> will play the hedge long marked on the chart if market allows Above next area of interest remains 65.5k: > Range VAL > Largest nearby liquidity cluster cleared > approaching 4h OB > Confluence with our projected correction level -> will only enter a short if order flow confirms, mid term structure remains bullish for now

avatar

$BTC positioning 🟢 > OI continues to rise gradually while funding turned negative > Spot buying improving while Retail increasingly leaning short > Price responds and grows Meanwhile, long short distribution is getting skewed >Long liq levels: 331; Short liq levels: 106. Delta: +225 ~$8B liquidity imbalance -> longs in risk but order flow does not overheat yet Largest short-term liquidity cluster remains above at 65k. Below, the most meaningful concentration sits around 62.7k-62k in proximity, which would be a healthy pullback zone if tested. Thin order books + rising OI + negative funding = squeeze conditions in place imo -> could see some more upside especially since expectation for a deal is increasing Watching whether shorts become fuel for a move into the 65k liquidity pool.

avatar

$BTC plan > Took the local high and activated the higher timeframe target levels we discussed earlier. -> bullish sequence would lead into my main POI where I would scale my swing short again & build a new short The medium-term sequence is still intact and, in my view, not fully played out yet. > we currently induce back into the range > Main POI for another hedge long remains 62.1k. > Also worth noting: the SpaceX Nasdaq IPO catalyst is still ahead of us > SpaceX opens likely around $160-175 after $135 IPO - strong pop likely followed by a dump, plus heavy capital rotation out of BTC eventually. That’s why I secured profits here rather than overstaying the move. > Next major resistance above sits at the 4H OB / range VAL area. > That’s the first location where I’d consider building a short, assuming order flow supports it. Until then, I will play this sequence Levels mapped. Now we let price do the work.

avatar

$BTC hedge long full TP +4R Took full TP at 64.2k -> slightly earlier I still think we trade higher eventually, but after this extension I’d rather wait for a deeper pullback and re-enter the sequence than chase price up here. GGs. ~4R trade for everyone who caught it. Sequence played out almost exactly as mapped. Banking the win and staying patient for the next setup

avatar

$BTC weekend outlook Short-term liquidity remains fairly balanced, but there are a few notable clusters. > Decent liquidity sits just above local highs. > Significant short-term liquidity remains around the 61k region. Liq levels delta: +167 in favor of downside liquidity -> Imbalance: roughly $6B -> longs slightly more at risk > Largest signle liq levels sit around 62.4k and 61.1k. Those are likely to act as both magnets and reaction zones, especially over the weekend. -> Order books remain relatively thin. it takes less capital to push price into positioning My expectation remains the same: > Lots of ranging with short liq spikes

avatar

$BTC daily plan > Trade sitting around 3R > Took another 20% off here - 70% realized total > Nice reaction from the deep retracement + mrVAH confluence we mapped yesterday > Sequence remains intact for now > Still some meaningful liquidity sitting slightly above current highs inside our target zone > A sweep higher would also bring us into range VAH -> next major resistance and potential short area > Several single liq levels have formed within the buildup below price > Funding & OI getting elevated & imbalance is getting more positive > Wouldn’t mind seeing a corrective pullback here before continuation Friday thesis remains relevant: weekly profit-taking often creates opposing flows-> pressures longs -> thats why i took more partials -> If we lose the correction zone, I’m still interested in building another hedge long around 60.2k Market is deciding between: Staying range-bound Breaking into a stronger corrective move higher