Nobody trades prediction markets on Hyperliquid anymore. Yet HIP-4 revenue has never been higher. daily active traders are going down : July 12th -> 2.1k today -> 739 (-67%) but number of trades and total fees have exploded HIP-4 revenue : july 12th -> $332k today -> $3.9M How is that possible ? Because Hyperliquid is winning by letting OTHER platforms take over its markets. @Outcomexyz routinely generates ~80% of daily HIP-4 revenue @tradexyz and @SkewTrade recently entered the market and are already generating more fees than Hyperliquid's own markets Traders often never even visit Hyperliquid's website. They trade directly through independent deployers. This is the genius of HIP-4. Hyperliquid doesn't need to attract every trader, create every market or build the best prediction market UI. It outsources the most labor-intensive parts of the business: > Deployers handle market creation, resolution, distribution and liquidity incentives. > Hyperliquid provides the underlying infrastructure and collects a share of fees across the ecosystem. And there's a deeper reason why this model is so powerful. Consider two prediction markets: - The next Fed rate decision - The winner of Love Island Both can run on the same financial infrastructure. But do they need the same UI? The same audience? The same liquidity model? The same distribution channels? Obviously not. A macro trading terminal and an entertainment betting app are fundamentally different products. Instead of forcing both into one generic platform, HIP-4 allows independent businesses to build specialized experiences. Deployers compete to attract users and build markets. Hyperliquid benefits from their combined success without needing to win every individual market. That's how HIP-4 will let prediction markets take over the world

"there will be a Token, there will be an Airdrop" ~ Matthew Modabber that's the guy quoted in the tweet, I don't think Shayne picked him by mistake. there are basically 2 options now : > they are actually about to airdrop $POLY and we're all gonna make it > they want to milk the community for another round to pump their volume pre IPO @shayne_coplan I know you follow me, tell us which one it is, like this tweet if it's option 1 !

Think what you will about Seraphim, but he puts in the work for his bags. He isn't afraid to look foolish if it pushes Solana forward. And yes, trying new things often makes you look foolish, but once you succeed, it will not matter anymore. Ethereum could really use someone like him (maybe just a bit better-looking).

Prediction markets will never produce viral moments like these compare this clip from the Solana Frontier Traders event with highlights from the HiveCup (PM tournament). Solana Frontier highlights : 1.8M views HiveCup highlights : 450 views Very similar format. Massively different viewership. that difference is structural. Prediction markets have a KOL problem: the best PM traders are often the least streamable people imaginable. Good prediction market traders can spend 6 hours: - reading filings - checking polling methodology - comparing satellite images - translating foreign news broadcasts meanwhile the average perps trader : - vibe check a chart - take trade - either get liquidated or print 40x in a minute That’s insane entertainment value and I don't think prediction markets can compete on that Prediction markets will still create famous traders but their celebrity will come from being trusted analysts, with their PNL as a credibility metric, not entertainers. And once that reputation is etablish the next step is to make it investable : @ZEITFinance is basically building for that future with Perpetual Prediction vaults. Check some of them below 🔽

Hot Take: Crypto is finally healing now that CZ is out of the spotlight. And yes, SBF was better for the space.

It's great to see the Worldview concept pioneered by @ZEITFinance gain some attentions from big players We always knew we were early write down your narrative -> get a professional balanced portfolio expressing it https://t.co/CJgdWx4UNI

FAKE it's just impossible to combine Polymarket int and Polymarket US order books > Polymarket int use stablecoins in Polygons smart contracts > Polymarket US uses fiat dollars in a centralized database And how could regulated KYCed user be allowed to trade against anons ?

HIP-4 is blowing up since they released permisionless markets +184% daily volume +2423% unique markets All in only 2 weeks since the permisionless markets update. @HyperliquidX picked the hard way but ultimately it was the right way When they launched in June, HIP-4 was incomplete - no good UI - no liquidity incentives - very few markets This resulted in them "missing" on the World Cup, while Polymarket made billions in volume off it. But they had a vision and they kept to it now HIP-4 looks very different : - Permisionless market creation mechanism with deployers competing against each other - multiple competing good UIs (@tradexyz, @Outcomexyz) - native liquidity rewards + deployers boosting liquidity of their markets And in the end it doesn't matter much than Polymarket or Kalshi made more volume than them on the world cup They build a solid infra, battle tested it, and now the growth phase begins fade at your own risk

Solana's predcition market @world_xyz completely failed their launch ! their servers broke on the first day that's what happens when you are all Marketing and no Tech. They literally copy pasted the viral marketing playbook: > tease with an empty website and cryptic X posts for 2.5 YEARS ! > give every KOL referral links to shill > Give cash payout to users that link their X account (strangely only big accounts seem to be getting paid) > brag about your 1 million user waitlist ... then when it's time to actually launch the product > crash on the first day > users locked out of funds. > "Guys we didn't know we would get so much traffic !🤡" (what was the waitlist for???) Can we go back to the days of building good tech and THEN marketing the product ? This sadly reminds me of another company, that we know very well, that also went all in on marketing instead of fixing their tech. Apparently the site is back online (for now) but the "stimy" (cash bonuses) distribution has not resumed. Hope they turn it around but that's a bad first impression

This DOESN'T mean we are getting $Poly Stop being financial cattle. that's just a token warrant, doesn't mean there actually will be a token. If you never purchased a financial asset outside of Uniswap let me explain how that works : Actual investors (not retail exit liquidity) enjoy certain contractual protections. One of these protection is called the "token warrant". It basically says that if the company you invested into ever launches a token, you are entitled to a share of these tokens. It makes sense because token can be seen as competing with the equity you bought, so if there is *any chance* that the company ever launches a token, it will usually be included. It does not mean there is : - a token - a release date for a token - a concrete plan for a token - any real intention to one day create a token All it means is that the investors considered that there was a risk of @polymarket one day launching a token when they bough in, and they included a protection for it. i swear financial literacy is so low in the PM space. That's why you all keep getting dumped on