Many people don’t realize that the one certain opportunity they should be waiting for is the moment the AI cycle enters its bubble burst phase—this cycle is inevitable, only the timing remains uncertain. Before that happens, focus on steadily building your capital. Stop deploying large sums into cycle trading in hopes of catching another big wave. What you should do is hold substantial cash reserves and wait for the moment to strike. The AI funding boom has already lasted three and a half years. If you haven’t profited from this cycle yet, consider this: AI is now universally known and universally used. Ask yourself honestly—is there still any real reason to jump in now? When the AI cycle first emerged, capturing its benefits required foresight, deep understanding, and a bit of luck. But now that this generational technological cycle is firmly established, what you need most is patience—patience to wait for the bubble to burst, patience to wait until skepticism sets in. Only then should you confidently go all-in to buy the dip. This is a clear, actionable opportunity for ordinary investors—but only if you have the capital ready to do so when the time comes. Therefore, patiently wait for the AI cycle to turn. Starting now, ensure you hold ample cash—that is the most important thing you can do.

#BTC #ETH There are currently over $80 million in spot sell orders on Coinbase’s order book, with the largest single order near $808; This could indicate selling pressure taking effect, causing price to reverse and consolidate around this level—if price returns to this area later, this large sell order may no longer exist, allowing major players to attempt a breakout; Alternatively, if buy orders are strong enough to absorb this large sell order without a significant price drop, the $808 level could become a new support level following the breakout.

#BTC #ETH Currently, according to the Fear & Greed Index, the market has entered the greed phase but has not yet reached extreme greed. Based on funding rates in the derivatives market and lending rates in the spot market, trading sentiment does not yet reflect FOMO; However, on Twitter, this is the most FOMO-driven market I’ve ever seen—there’s unprecedented consensus across the network, with 90% of users expecting a bull recovery; So while data suggests the market isn’t yet highly FOMO-driven, public sentiment is more euphoric than when Bitcoin reached $120,000; In trading, buy on divergence, sell on consensus. If you believe in a bull recovery, the safer approach is to buy or add to spot positions during every pullback of 15% or more, when widespread doubt emerges about whether the bull recovery is real.

#BTC #ETH In a bull market, longs are primarily liquidated; in a bear market, shorts are primarily liquidated—this may sound counterintuitive, but it’s true: yesterday, short liquidations reached an unprecedented historic high of a staggering $3 billion. The short-term trend in crypto has reversed, but I do not believe the bull market has returned. The real driver behind this rally is capital flowing back into crypto after U.S. equities hit new highs and then stalled, prompting investors to seek new speculative opportunities in the crypto market. Here’s the breakdown: Over the past period, U.S. equities rallied strongly, with the S&P 500 breaking new highs, while crypto remained sluggish, with trading volume and volatility at absurdly low levels. If you’ve been trading, you’ve likely noticed the unusual drop in volume and volatility over the last two weeks. As U.S. markets have recently entered a sideways phase with weakening upward momentum, institutional and retail capital have urgently sought alternative speculative arenas. Crypto, having lagged behind U.S. equities, has naturally absorbed this inflow of capital. Finally: BTC is expected to enter a consolidation phase around $73K–$75K. If it fails to break higher with sustained volume increase, this rally will be confirmed as a violent rebound during a bear market—driven purely by capital rotation and short liquidations.

#BTC #ETH On June 2, I warned everyone that the recent massive bull run in U.S. stocks may be coming to an end—those who don’t understand the logic should reconsider carefully; SanDisk, Micron, SPAC, and SK Hynix have suffered the steepest declines, and these four stocks have previously wiped out countless crypto die-hard bulls, as their trading volumes and holdings in the crypto space are consistently among the top ten; When you add gold, silver, and the S&P 500 trading pairs, seven of the top fifteen holdings are non-crypto assets—followed by crude oil pairs. Doesn’t this seem alarming? This is precisely what I meant by the damage caused by stock market trading entering the crypto space and undermining altcoin liquidity; Of course, this situation requires a balanced perspective: for those still holding large amounts of altcoin spot assets, this is a devastating blow, as it means the already weak altcoin market will now completely lose the speculative bull run many still cling to; for traders, however, this is beneficial, as these flagship stocks are far easier to trade than alts; Therefore, if you’re still counting on buying a basket of altcoins and imagining a repeat of the 2020 altcoin bull run, it’s time to let go—because the fundamental landscape of crypto has changed dramatically, and any possibility of an altcoin bull market has vanished.

#BTC #ETH This rally has shown the first signs of a breakdown on the 4-hour chart; watch for a rebound near 643; The level at 63 is now a point of divergence between range traders and trend traders, as oscillators are nearing a potential rebound zone, the long/short ratio has returned to 2, and open interest is rising—indicating significant participation from both sides during the downtrend; For trend traders, once the 4-hour support at 643 is broken, they will begin shifting from long to short positions, a transition confirmed by the increasing open interest; Moving forward, short traders should monitor whether the price rebounds back above 643, while long traders should watch for continued gradual new lows.

#BTC #ETH I’ve temporarily closed my short position because I added to it during the last rally to $60K, but the price didn’t move as expected—so my average entry price for this short isn’t ideal. New short entry strategy on the right side: If the price breaks below $62K and fails to recover, I’ll re-enter the short.

#BTC #ETH If the bearish trend continues, I believe $60K will be broken in this cycle—this level won’t remain in a prolonged sideways consolidation; If $60K ultimately holds, then we’ll need to reconsider the trajectory of this bear market; I’m still holding my short positions, so I expect we’ll soon see BTC drop below $50K, with the $58K–$60K range becoming resistance for the next consolidation phase.

#BTC #ETH Begin closing short positions;

#Claude #Fable5 Claude’s latest model, Fable5, has been globally banned in the U.S.—I only got to use it for one day before it was taken away, and I hadn’t even had time to test its capabilities in complex scenarios. Is it really that alarming...? Recently, AI has helped me earn unexpected income—not through trading, but through productivity gains in other areas. So I encourage everyone to explore whether current AI agents can quickly resolve longstanding pain points in your own field. Moreover, even though today’s AI agents are incredibly capable, I believe it’s unrealistic to expect AI to generate profits through trading. The real value lies in how they save you immense time on validation, tool development, and strategy coding—but having AI autonomously produce a consistently profitable trading strategy is nearly impossible.