11.2 Let’s get down to the facts: Why is this the middle of a bear market, not the beginning of a bull market? While fundamentals play a role, here are the technical indicators: 1. Volume: A bear market bottom must be accompanied by massive trading volume. At the end of 2022, there was heavy turnover, but since June, volume has remained low and has gradually declined—this is not an absolute bottom. 2. Accumulation Zone: Institutional accumulation always occurs within a narrow consolidation range. In 2022, the accumulation zone accounted for less than 20% of the entire decline, characterized by small candles. In contrast, this year’s consolidation zone represents 38% of the entire decline, with large candle ranges—this is entirely unfavorable for accumulation. 3. False Breakout: After breaking above the 25,000 accumulation zone in 2022, prices never returned to the prior support level. But this year’s breakout above 83,000 was clearly a false breakout, as the monthly candle fully engulfed and reversed back down.

11.1 BTC ETF began net outflows in October 1. BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $640 million yesterday, the highest since June, and more concerning, October as a whole has shifted from net inflows to net outflows. 2. ETH ETF is even worse, with five consecutive weeks of net outflows. If you’re still hoping for ETH to enter a bull market, I can only say you’re too young and too simple. https://t.co/7betcPO4Ef

Many are expecting crypto to surge, with several major influencers even bullish on ETH. I am not only extremely bearish on ETH, but I believe ETH will fall below the previous bear market low of $874 within the next six months. https://t.co/wtsxsHWDh0

10.31 ETH ETF records historic net outflows 1. The crypto rebound is over—abandon any bullish fantasies. ETH ETF saw net outflows of $1.45 billion last month, a record high, as large investors are fleeing en masse. 2. Gold plunged 3.6% in a single day and has now entered a zone where traders may buy for a short-term rebound. 3. QQQ and SOXL, after sustained declines, have also entered a daily rebound zone; the KOSP storage sector’s rebound may still continue. Overall, crypto, gold, and equities are all weakening and entering bearish trends—especially as Intel’s earnings miss appears to be a turning point for AI.

The current phase is a breakdown below 80,000, moving toward the 75,000 level. Many have already exhausted their capital, while others have accumulated excessive positions in crypto terms. Once leverage is used to go long, the Pandora’s box is opened—liquidations and exit from the market over the next six months are merely a matter of time.

10.28 Consolidation is setting up for a new trend 1. BTC has been consolidating around 81,300, where support has now turned into resistance; as long as price fails to break above decisively, the bias remains bearish. 2. Both ETH ETF and SOL ETF have continued with net outflows, while only BTC shows slight net inflow. 3. The interest rate decision will be announced early tomorrow; the market has already priced in a pause in rate hikes, with indices recently rebounding—be cautious of a potential spike and reversal after the expectation is fulfilled. https://t.co/clF9kVZ7Yv

October 27: Bearish on crypto, U.S. stocks rebound BTC at 18,100 and ETH at 2,370 have shifted from support to resistance; only a breakout above these levels could enable further upside—otherwise, the outlook remains bearish. The interest rate path is now largely clear: a pause this week, with another hike expected in December. The key focus is whether September’s CPI remains elevated. With earnings season underway, AI-related stocks, particularly in the storage sector, show signs of rebound demand after this recent sell-off.

While being bearish on cryptocurrencies, we see rebound opportunities in gold and storage. Gold and storage only need a bit more downward momentum—ideally breaking below prior lows—to form a short-term bottom and trigger a strong rebound.

10.26 — Over the next six months, most people will be liquidated and exit the market. When BTC broke $75,000, every KOL on the network was shouting that the bull market had arrived and urging everyone to buy the dip. When BTC surged past $83,000, even the most steadfast bears flipped to longs and bought on the rally. When BTC fell back to $80,000, most traders had already exhausted their capital going long. When BTC dropped back to $75,000, most began going long on a coin-denominated basis. As BTC continued its decline—not just to $70,000 or $60,000, but all the way to $40,000—all leveraged long positions will be liquidated.

10.25 BTC 81,000 support turned resistance 1. The 81,000 level was a significant support area, tested multiple times in the past; now broken, it has become a key resistance zone. 2. BTC’s hourly chart shows a fully bearish trend; the next target is to break below 75,000 to form a lower low on the daily chart, establishing a bearish trend on the daily timeframe. 3. Altcoins like ETH and SOL have already clearly broken key levels, signaling the market’s directional bias. https://t.co/YIak8oaUwt