Well, that’s a wrap! Here is a summary of today's market activity and key observations: The anticipated bounce promised to us by giddy bulls was short-lived, lasting only through the first hour of trading. Technical indicators continue to signal caution, suggesting that attempting to “buy the dip” may further exacerbate the downside momentum. Of note, recent data cited by ZeroHedge indicates that hyperscaler credit spreads have reached a new record wide. Simultaneously, Investment Grade (IG) spreads are widening significantly following new debt issuances from Meta and Oracle. Going forward, the critical metric to monitor is Investment Grade Credit Default Swaps (CDS). Should IG CDS begin to break out, it will indicate that equities have not yet established a durable bottom. Have a wonderful evening. Source: Bloomberg, Zerohedge

The Dollar, Foreign Investors, and a $20T Problem… Perhaps the scariest quote and chart I’ve read all week. If you’re a bull, look away. If you’re an unbiased investor ready for cold hard facts, here you go. The quote and chart are from Deutsche Bank w/some additional commentary by Zerohedge. But the facts reflect the reality. Thanks to this bank and Zerohedge for explaining it in language clear to those not savvy in “market talk.” According to Deutsche Bank: “We estimate that roughly 90% of the $20+ trillion value of US equities owned by foreigners is attributable to price appreciation rather than underlying buying. Put simply, for every $1 of US equities that has been bought, there are roughly $10 equities now owned.” Napkin math: roughly $2 trillion of actual buying under $18 trillion of mark-to-market gains (likely from a handful of megacaps). The flow that built the pile was small; the pile that can be sold is not. Read that last sentence again! Translation via ZeroHedge: Our take: the market still treats the dollar as the default hedge for a tech crash, and the unhedged, concentrated positioning prices exactly that. If the next leg of the AI unwind is US-made—which it will be—the dollar is more likely part of the problem than the solution. Nothing says “safe haven” like an asset whose foreign owners are 90% paper gains. H/T: ZeroHedge, Deutsche Bank Research Source: Deutsche Bank Research

S&P - Tick for Tick call w/Itemized Receipt 🧾 Note the play-by-play given a month and a half back on our last Fed day. Now ask yourself, does technical analysis work? The answers are littered throughout my feed. As I begin to slow down my X posts after November 1st, I’d like to remind you to subscribe to your FREE “Key Report” today! Link is in bio.

$XMR Monero is one of a small group of cryptocurrencies that remain true to their roots, due to its unique privacy features. Notably, while most coins—including Bitcoin—have been throttled, Monero is just below its all-time high. https://t.co/1ahfJSGHsN

MSTR MicroStrategy (MSTR) reported its earnings today. However, its performance remains directly correlated with the price of Bitcoin, and both assets are currently trending downward. I advise caution regarding overly optimistic market commentary. Our analysis has consistently provided accurate, unbiased market research and predictions across multiple assets, and we remain dedicated to delivering this objective insight to our Key Report members. Please be reminded that the complimentary lifetime offer for the "Key Report" will expire after November 1. Registration is free and takes approximately 30 seconds to complete via the link in my bio. Source: Benzinga

How about that Intel !? It’s not like we don’t warn you. ⚠️ 👇

CTA's Before I conclude my analysis for the day, I would like to note that CTAs are currently significant sellers in a down tape. These factors warrant careful consideration, particularly as we have reached key technical thresholds within these overvalued markets. While the prevailing narrative on Wall Street suggests that every market dip represents a buying opportunity, I believe this is an increasingly hazardous strategy when market concentration and leverage have reached historic highs. Source: Goldman Sachs

Bitcoin - Daily • Price back below 20/50MA Ribbon • Di- back over ADX • MACD back under “0-line” • While a near term bounce is possible, the new resistance is at 82K Notable, Sunday’s close produced a weekly Gravestone Doji. These must be confirmed before they can be assumed validated but something to consider nonetheless.

Bitcoin - Hourly As for a chart before I log off, Bitcoin does has some LTF bullish Div on the RSI. 📈 Will it save it from lower lows? No Will it keep moon boys posting? Yes Technically speaking: • Over 87K = 🐂 • Under $74K = 🐻 • In between, chop 🔪 Have a splendid Sunday!!

LET ME SPELL IT OUT FOR YOU! BITCOIN WILL NOT MAKE A NEW HIGH. IT WILL MAKE A NEW LOW! ALL INFLUENCERS ON X ARE NOT TECHNICAL ANALYSTS. I HAVE CALLED EVERY TOP AND BOTTOM & ALL WHO DECIDE TO CHALLENGE ME, PLEASE INVITE ME TO YOUR SHILL ZONE, AS I WILL CRUSH YOU! Have a great weekend!