@VestExchange Ngl, your idea is good. But usability of the platform is close to impossible. Maybe try a tradingview integration to make it simpler for all.

Three PMIs at 17:45 GST, and every one is expected softer. Manufacturing 53.6 est, 53.9 prev Composite 55.2 est, 56.0 prev Services 56.0 est, 56.5 prev All three stay in expansion. So this is a slowdown, not a turn, and it is worth being precise about that.

Marking yesterday's post before tonight's decision, not after. I said two things. First, that our regime read had the headline at risk off while intraday breadth said risk on, and that the model flags that disagreement rather than picking a side.

Four inflation prints across three continents in two days. The week ahead, with scenarios before the numbers.

CPI in an hour. Going in: risk-off, Nikkei -3%, oil above $100, and Japan just printed 7.6% producer inflation — the fastest in decades, in the one economy that spent thirty years failing to create any. What each outcome would mean, before we know which one we get:

Oil went through $100 yesterday. Two hours later, American mortgage rates were higher. 30-year at 6.73%, the 5/1 ARM through 7%. Those two facts are five steps apart 🧵

UK gilt yields hit an 18-year high this week. Part of the reason is a data centre 🧵

Bitcoin lost 78,000 yesterday. That's the exact level it reached eight days ago 🧵

Yesterday I said the interesting thing about Warsh wasn't what he'd say - it was whether he'd say anything at all. He said plenty. Hike bets went 30% to 57%, and MarketWatch's line was that he got what every Fed chair hopes for: a bond market that trusts his word.

The new Fed Chair delivers his first Jackson Hole address today. And the interesting part isn't what he'll say. It's that he's been signalling markets might not get an answer at all 🧵