The market is moving too fast—the semiconductor sector has been oversold but hasn’t rebounded. Last night, stocks like $AMD and $SOXL dropped during trading, so I thought I’d wait for the decline to go long. After oil fell, it stabilized. Damn, then early this morning, the U.S. launched a strike on Iran, and everything started falling again. I should’ve just kept shorting.
In the third quarter of 2026, the combined stock and fund losses of the five listed insurance companies approached RMB 400 billion; Ping An and Taiping saw significant declines in net profit, with their performance setbacks stemming not from their core insurance operations but primarily from losses in equity investments. The root cause lies in a conflict within the performance evaluation system: regulators encourage long-term investment and extend evaluation horizons, yet frontline investment personnel are still assessed based on quarterly and annual rankings. This led insurance funds to aggressively buy technology stocks at peak prices in July, then panic-sell en masse as markets declined in September, triggering follow-on selling by mutual and private funds, and even causing substantial drawdowns at AI-driven quantitative firms like Huafang Quant. The A-share market struggles to sustain a stable, long-term bull market because the scale of major shareholder sell-offs far exceeds share repurchases, resulting in continuous capital outflows.
$META —— Expecting a stabilization after the decline. Meta has posted its first negative free cash flow since going public, raised its capital expenditure guidance again, and faced a record $25 billion fine. The market is now questioning the returns on its AI bets with a more critical, "accounting" perspective. The stock has fallen for five consecutive days since the earnings report, retreating more than 20% from its all-time high.
This week, the AI stock sell-off wasn’t about “not making money”—it was about “running out of cash.” Meta increased its capital expenditures to $135–145 billion and is raising new equity; CoreWeave’s bonds have plunged into credit distress; SoftBank’s market cap has halved since its June peak. The market’s panic loop is this: AI companies are burning cash faster than ever, while funding channels are shrinking—fear is growing that they’ll run out of fuel mid-burn. Then, at this critical moment, Anthropic officially filed for an IPO (ticker: ANT), signaling to the market that the public markets’ purse is still open—that leading AI companies are bold enough to expose their finances to SEC scrutiny, and that private investors are still willing to step in. This restores confidence in funding channels and establishes a valuation anchor: fear shifts from “an unknown cash sinkhole” to “a tradable asset,” which is why the Nasdaq rose +0.82% on Monday. But let’s be cautious: filing ≠ listing. Anthropic is still massively unprofitable, and the loss figures in its S-1 could be a double-edged sword. What truly confirms the AI narrative are the upcoming earnings reports from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and SK Hynix—private market pricing provides the anchor, but public market earnings will determine survival.
3600 has been broken
Overnight triple sell-off: U.S. AI stocks plunged (Nasdaq -2.6%, Meta -7%, NVIDIA -4.4%), Brent crude surged 4% to $113 (Houthi retaliation + U.S. military “Iron Wall” blockade of Iran), gold dropped below 4,030 (initial jobless claims at 194,000, a 57-year low, reigniting rate hike expectations). Today, A-share AI and memory sectors face significant catch-up correction pressure (Nasdaq ETF trading halt warning); oil-driven inflation may intensify tightening expectations, with next week’s FOMC and central bank meetings in Europe and Japan constituting a super week.
Right now, among all risk assets, crypto is holding up stronger. Others, like semiconductors and gold, are all declining across the board. Come on, bitcoin:native https://t.co/zlJfZN85Kf
Opened lower and continued to decline across the board—major indices and the ChiNext led the breakdown, with the Shanghai Composite directly falling below the key 3,700 level. ChiNext (-1.36%) > CSI 300 (-1.04%) > SSE 50 (-0.85%) > Shanghai Composite (-0.67%) > STAR 50 (-0.59%) > CSI 500 (-0.51%) > CSI 1000 (-0.37%) > CSI 2000 (-0.21%)—the larger the index, the worse the decline, characteristic of institutional and weight-driven selling pressure. This follows the same trend seen since October 20, where “large-cap outflows with high volume” have dominated. Today marks the third consecutive day, and the sell-off has now expanded from “large-cap declines” to a broad market selloff. Retail-driven small-cap stocks showed relative resilience: CSI 2000 fell only 0.21%, and CSI 1000 dropped 0.37%—less than half the decline of major indices. This wave is targeting institutional heavyweights (core assets and ChiNext blue chips).
