$ZEC Was right on my short idea, wrong on time. IF this level holds, I’m expecting a new high… despite my disbelief in its long term success. Safer target would be $1,450-$1,500. A long way down if not. https://t.co/J9V0oGzhzC
@Tradeify calling me up to live, because they realized that I run these markets. I just paid like $700 for 2 300k Select accounts and only needed $2,000 to pass them, consistency already met. So honestly pretty annoying to just get refunded. And I have $10,000 profits that I can't withdraw yet... Prop firms are a love hate thing, but can't complain about more live capital to trade.
1 year ago… I’ve always thought that the only way to rationalize AI is for AI usage to subsidize unemployment/UBI. There have been very public negotiations around what happens to AI from here in the form of headlines and truth social posts… AI wants regulatory capture, while People do not want to give it and more so want economic and job security. My take is that Trump and team want to see this sort of thing (AI to contribute economic benefit to citizens to counteract job displacement and economic impact). The fear mongering headlines of previous weeks surrounding AI have been an attempt for AI companies to be granted regulatory capture. AI boosts productivity. Long term definitely net positive. The short term effect is undoubtedly net negative. Look at Adobe, and their entire suite of products getting recreated and open sourced. It’s only just begun. Renaming Artificial Intelligence to Super Intelligence is a distinction surrounding AI to replace people vs AI to empower people. I suspect that this will conclude with a US sovereign wealth fund owning significant stakes of US AI companies, which, is a far better middle ground than regulatory capture. And this idea goes far beyond AI. Because everyone knows Social Security is a scam and we can’t trust the government with anything related to money. Government and Fed is also far too slow and often wrong about what changes to make and often can’t even agree on the changes to be made, even if they’re beneficial… if instead, US social benefits are directly tied to the very companies that make up America, through a sovereign wealth fund, we aren’t trusting the government to provide benefits, we are trusting the markets ability and share in the upside. That is why Trump accounts are important. And ultimately, how you end wokeism… by providing the people who think communism is cool a new incentive structure which actually makes them care about the companies that make up the country they live in… because they benefit from said companies. It also prevents fraud and abuse, since there is no middle man or legislature required to improve or change benefits… when American companies succeed, the program benefits improve proportionately. Not to mention, the amount of scrutiny surrounding public companies far exceeds the scrutiny individuals can place on government operations and arms length shell companies run by politicians or their family. The politicians can’t single-handedly change how markets perform significantly and to their benefit.
Buy the fear
For what its worth, I sold more $NVDA yesterday https://t.co/5pidmVWmwj
What would a $300m market buy order do to the price of $XRP, which has a MASSIVE supply but a thin order book? Just curious… A lot of people are going to learn why market cap isn’t a limiting factor on commodities with a real utility.
$XRP I’ve talked about Jay Clayton before… Is it possible that this is the role in which Clayton finds himself? He’s not anti crypto, the opposite. Not the executioner… more like a drawbridge operator. He mans the bridge that allows people past the moat of regulatory capture. This could likely lead the market to believe AI regulatory capture is coming, but likely never will. It could very well be a regulatory freeze. And if Jay Clayton leads this charge, and similar events as to what happened with Ripple and crypto under his guidance occur with AI… I would think it is a fairly high probability that what I outlined could carry weight. If the US saw XRP (then) as a potential path out of the economic situation we are seeing (now)… it would only work as a repricing vehicle / financial infrastructure rails / fraud & abuse prevention tech if they 1) owned enough supply, 2) XRP price remained low enough for the world to adopt it (which hinges on legal clarity) and 3) understand the risk of it as a potential option for doing so. The SEC lawsuit helps facilitate all of those things. Jay Clayton may not have been executing XRP as much as he was operating the bridge to be positioned as it needed to in order to get into the castle. Legal Clarity was definitively provided by the SEC lawsuit and its outcome. This caused the market to view it as over supplied and create a low price which is advantageous for repricing. And in the process, the US Government has all the time in the world to vet the tech and understand whether it’s a viable vehicle. I can’t help think about the timeline of events. Jeffrey Epstein died in 2019. COVID. Trump lost the 2020 election. Between 2020 and Biden’s inauguration in 2021, this lawsuit against XRP comes out, from Jay Clayton who was on the way out of running the SEC. Leon Black is ousted from Apollo Management due to $170m worth of payments to Epstein. Jay Clayton takes Leon Black’s board seat, between April 2021 - 2025 2025 Jay Clayton becomes the head of SDNY… the same SDNY which prosecuted Epstein. Now he’s head of AI… He’s hated on for being mentioned in Epstein docs but you haven’t seen the context to understand to make a good judgement yet. Think about how sporadic it was that the last thing he did was protect XRP by giving it the opportunity through the lawsuit to be provably unique compared to Bitcoin and others. But only after losing 2020 election. Since Trump lost 2020. Rather than allowing Democratic’ leadership to decide the crypto industry’s future… they gave a free pass to Bitcoin and Ethereum (giving the illusion of being “safe” and “chosen”) and sued Ripple IN A WAY THAT STRATEGICALLY ALLOWED CONTINUED GROWTH. While the lawsuit was short term negative, it was a Hail Mary to prevent the next administration from doing something they couldn’t control. Like, “Okay, we lost. How can we put this plan on ice, until we win next election?” The lawsuit WAS NOT regulatory capture for ETH/BTC as much as it was regulatory containment for XRP. Which is why the first thing the new SEC does until this admin is dismiss their appeals. Both Ripple and SEC did. Which begs the question… since @bgarlinghouse and recently said at KU that he was considering closing up shop after the SEC sued. Why didn’t he? BEFORE the suit came - he met with SEC officials (Jay Clayton) multiple times… so if you are to believe what I am speculating (Clayton is acting on good side, lawsuit was protection /putting a pause until 24 election, etc.) you should also believe that this amount of planning would require the coordination of Brad and Larsen through out the process. Which makes perfect sense to have them named in the lawsuit, which is completely out of the ordinary… The lawsuit provides cover for consistent coordination. The lawsuit guided the process through to the other side. Clayton could have been the bridge operator, not the executioner.
Do I seem so crazy being the contrarian now? Probably 180 before Monday but definitely feels like setting up controlled demolition down. Really simple strategy, really - cover up all the fundamentally flawed pieces of the market (bonds/rates, housing, oil, ai & private credit, etc.) with bearish headlines knowing you are nearing a deal with China, so the market rejects the fundamental flaws and instead follows the headlines. No idea how it ends up or when/how the these fundamentals catch up to be un-cover-up-able by headlines but still positioned short going into next week, expecting potentially even a red September.
Oracle credit default swaps through the roof. OpenAI is pleading for a bail out. “We need to be regulated, it’s a public safety issue we can’t control!!! (We can manufacture a catastrophe, unless you help us achieve regulatory capture so that we can stay afloat.) As advanced and capable as AI is - it is not autonomous. They’re merchandising the fear which they either can directly control or have the option to avoid. It’s weaponized negligence masked as incompetence (… and somehow the government getting involved makes them more competent to fix the problem lol???) Tbh, kind of pulling a page out of Israel’s playbook as of late. Like Netanyahu telling UN how catastrophic a missile would be as he’s asking for continued support on their little expansion project in the Middle East. (We have the best intelligence and defense tech in the world, so it would be a shame if something bad were to happen…) Strap in…. Going to be an interesting Q4.
