$SKHY 3Q26 IR Materials: Changes from 2Q *Favorable supply-demand outlook through 2030 Supply expansion is constrained by the technical difficulty of leading-edge processes and long fab construction lead times; a demand-driven market is expected through 2030 *Physical AI mentioned Enterprise and personal AI to drive near-term growth, with physical AI expected to broaden the scope of demand over the mid-to-long term *HBM price negotiations mentioned 2027 HBM contract terms have been finalized; the profitability gap between HBM and conventional DRAM is expected to narrow meaningfully *LTA expansion 2Q26: 10 vs. 3Q26: 14 (including global CSPs); LTA volume secured to date covers more than 50% of total capacity for both 2027 and 2028 *Shareholder returns KRW 30tn cash dividend (special dividend funded by gains on the Kioxia investment); KRW 60tn+ in share buybacks and cancellation

AI capex cut fear is behind us. If the US can't even reach a consensus on this at home, how is it supposed to strike a deal with China?

$AVGO AI revenue guidance came in above expectations, erasing the after-hours decline. FY27: $115B (+98% y/y), FY28: $230B (+100% y/y) The FY28 AI revenue figure in particular sits 15% above the most bullish sell-side estimate. Like Nvidia's FY27 revenue guidance (+70% y/y vs. 44% consensus), this points to earnings visibility running well ahead of consensus.

Bernstein's $150k Bitcoin Forecast — A Realistic Price Range Derived from Past Institutional Targets Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin will set a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 and reach $300,000 at the 2029 cycle peak. - The rationale: the 40-year era of falling interest rates has ended, and with US sovereign debt at $40 trillion, governments will opt for currency debasement over fiscal austerity — plus expanding ETF and corporate treasury buying. -Institutional Bitcoin forecasts have always been wrong, so I pulled together the historical cases to derive a realistic price range. *2020–21 cycle Simple average target: $289,833 (low $146K, high $600K) Actual high $68,990 → 23.8% realization rate, −76.2% shortfall *2024–25 cycle Simple average target: $189,000 (low $150K, high $500K) Actual high $126,198 → 66.8% realization rate, −33.2% shortfall - The narrowing shortfall isn't because institutions got better at forecasting — it's because the target multiple itself shrank from 11x to 2.8x. - In 2020 they threw out 20x numbers on TAM logic like "if it matches gold's market cap." Since 2024 they've anchored to observable flows — net ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying — which pulled the multiple down. - Applying this to currently live targets: Bernstein $150,000 (mid-2027), Standard Chartered $100,000 (end-2026), JPMorgan $170,000 → average $140,000. That's 1.8x the current price of $78,400, below even the 2024–26 cycle's average multiple of 2.8x. - The realistic Bitcoin target range based on historical precedent is $90,000–$130,000. - If Bitcoin breaks $100k (a symbolic number), the media will start talking it up again and the crowd will pile in with praise, and the price action will reinforce itself reflexively. Don't get drunk on it — sell well into that. https://t.co/6I845RpytF

Bio could be a more powerful AI stock price catalyst than physical AI

Are we back?

Key Takeaways from Big Tech Conference Calls — and What They Mean for Semis Overall, neither great nor terrible. Some comfort in the fact that this wasn't the worst-case scenario semiconductor investors had feared. Except for Google, management teams were tight-lipped about medium- to long-term capex plans. My guess is they're being cautious because signaling heavy capex can crush the stock price and put them in an unfavorable position in capital markets. On the positive side, Google and Microsoft cloud revenue growth is accelerating (Google +82%, Microsoft +43% y/y), and they seem confident about AI monetization. Amazon's report tomorrow will probably strike a similar tone. On the negative side, Meta is a bit ambiguous. They keep weighing the ROI of selling compute externally versus using it internally, and it feels like they haven't picked a direction. That said, given Zuckerberg's strong conviction in his consumer AI agent bet (the next-generation market opportunity beyond coding, currently the main source of AI agent demand), there seems to be little incentive to cut AI investment anytime soon. Separately from all this, semiconductor share prices look likely to be driven by flows and macro for the time being.

bullish

Almost every major AI tech company is rushing to raise capital — a classic late-cycle signal. Liquidity is finite, so there isn't enough to keep bidding up both stocks and crypto. Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked

Capitulation is near