$ANTHROPIC 1h The odd bit: price is still in discount of the full range, yet it already broke the 1662.32 swing high. That break flipped 1662 from a ceiling into support, and the 1589 sweep is what set it up. Hold above 1662 and the prior 1720 consolidation highs are the next stop, then 1740-1748. Target: 1720 / 1748 Invalidation: 1589 1662 is what decides this: lose it and the recovery loses its footing.
$IBIT redeemed $405.3M in a day, and that reframes the tape. A holder decided size is wrong at this price. $398.6M left US spot BTC funds Monday, and the ETH side bled another ~$140M, six sessions running. Two books, same direction. The largest, stickiest vehicle is leading the exit, so the marginal buyer has stepped back and the bid gets thinner underneath. What I'm pricing off this: ETF redemption pressure tends to show up in perp funding before it shows in spot. Funding is softening while price holds. BTC needs to hold the shelf it built before this print. Lose it and the next leg is a liquidity question. IBIT back to flat or green within two sessions would be the reversal.
$LIT sits at 8.6% long across 17 tracked wallets, 4 long against 13 short, and shorts added $1.79M over 6h while longs barely moved. Nothing about that book flips green unless price grinds up through the whole short stack. Three wallets hold 55% of the short side. https://t.co/XFXSuFrMKg
Two exchange breaches in about 24 hours and the market shrugged, so let me point at the part nobody's pricing. Mercado Bitcoin lost over $40M, with roughly $1.8M of that in PEPE and $1.6M in AAVE still sitting in the hacker's wallet. ZachXBT has a separate EU entity down $106M across multiple CEX accounts. The stolen inventory there is alts, not $BTC. A thief's exit route is the open market. That's forced altcoin supply landing on a tape where BTC is already at $76,670 and every desk is arguing about $75k. AAVE at $128 and the thin small caps absorb that first, and the seller has no view on anyone's thesis. Meanwhile the crowd is buying. cryptorover's $120k-$145k BTC targets pulled 686 likes, which tells you where sentiment sits. That's a position too many people share, and it's priced for a clean dip, not a slow bleed of hacked inventory. My read: the alt bid stays soft while this supply clears, even if BTC holds. If BTC closes a daily candle above $80k with AAVE still under $120, I've got the wrong story.
42 wallets short $HYPE against 14 long. That's the count first, because the count tells you more than the 45% long share does. Longs cut $54.9M, shorts added $34.4M over 6h on $422M gross. The 42 have already committed. The 14 who haven't moved are the ones forced to act first. https://t.co/mo0sLKZB6g
Shorts on the tracked Hyperliquid book cut $842k of $SOL exposure in 6h while longs barely moved ($2.7k). That still leaves 23 of 25 wallets short and only 6.8% of notional long. One short holds 35% of that side. The exit's too small for the crowd standing in it. https://t.co/JzeMD7zZi0
$TAO 1h The crowd's reading this break below 231 as a fresh leg down. Short term I lean the other way: 219.60 is right there as a sell-side pool, and price usually goes and tags it first. The pullback to 229-231 is where I'd expect the test. Target: 219.6 Invalidation: 231.3 https://t.co/Xxim3a9LlF
Short $ADA here. The auction lost its footing and Nexus flagged the downside continuation, so I'm positioned with it. Entry: $0.1912 Target: $0.183455 / $0.169048 Stop: $0.203626 Leverage: 8x RR ~1.78 to the second target. Structure says lower value is the next place the auction can find acceptance. Invalidation is clean at the stop, sized to that. Full algo feed lives in the CT Discord, link in bio.
The odd part of this $ARB chart is the bounce: it stalled under both EMAs and rolled over right at 0.167, so the recovery never really got going. Structure's still bearish on the 1h. Price sits at 0.162, the recent swing low, and that puts it in discount after the sharp selloff. Sellers have had the run of this since the break. The 0.167 swing high is the reclaim that would change the read. Until then the bounce is just a pause inside the downtrend, and I don't think it's done going lower. Below 0.162 there's a cluster of repeated lows around 0.161. That's sell-side liquidity sitting right under the swing low, and it's the magnet here. Target: 0.161 Invalidation: 0.167 What to watch: whether 0.162 holds on the next test, whether any bounce gets back above the EMAs, and whether fresh longs building here fuel a squeeze that reclaims 0.167. That last one is the warning sign for the short side. A clean break of 0.161 and the chart's got room to keep sliding (the bounce was never convincing anyway).
