US Nonfarm Payrolls Fall by 23K in July vs. +80K Expected
US nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 jobs in July 2026, well below the consensus forecast for an 80,000 gain. The Bureau of Labor Statistics data, released on August 7, showed the unemployment rate edging down to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent. Private payrolls rose by 30,000 while government employment fell by 53,000, driven largely by a 50,000 drop in local government education jobs.
Prior months were revised lower as well. June’s gain was cut to 20,000 from 57,000, and May was reduced to 63,000 from 129,000, for a combined downward revision of 103,000 jobs. Health care added 22,000 positions and construction rose by 22,000. Leisure and hospitality lost 40,000 jobs, while retail trade declined by 19,000 and financial activities shed 14,000. Average hourly earnings increased just 0.1 percent for the month, bringing the year-over-year rise to 3.2 percent.
The soft report points to a cooling labor market after months of slower hiring. Labor force participation slipped to 61.4 percent as more people exited the workforce. Economists noted the three-month average payroll change has slowed notably. Markets will watch for any shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations ahead of the next rate decision, given the weaker job creation and ongoing downward revisions to earlier data.