At no time has there ever been any certainty towards a particular outcome and no analysis has been perfect, but overall there are some that were consistently bullish at the right time through the year, when the majority was bearish. That majority were not just too bearish at the macro lows, but also far too bullish at the recent local highs. Why? Because above 83k, Bitcoin printed its macro higher high, and all the big influencer accounts posted their apologies. The bottom is in, they said. So of course, the majority piled in, the market got too bullish, and the local high was set. Over the last month or two I've been calling for this retracement, against the sound of denial from the majority that the market would go lower. But Bitcoin did go lower, much more slowly than I thought, in fact it's just been a slow grind and bleed out, but that's exactly the sort of price action that kills the momentum and will eventually break sentiment. Sentiment metrics are still neutral to bearish, so they're not screaming local lows yet, but I am starting to see the cracks. Eventually the market will return to fear and the majority will once again call for new lows, as Bitcoin prints a higher low, and that will be the bottom.