$BTC is down 53% from its $126K peak. Every bear market in history saw deeper drawdowns than where we are now. 2011: -93% 2013-2015: -87% 2017-2018: -84% 2021-2022: -77% The mildest on record: 2021-2022 A 77% drawdown today would take Bitcoin to roughly $29K, about 50% lower from here. Duration matters too. The shortest bear lasted 12 months. We're at 9. Now here's the nuance, BTC averages +7% in July historically. Bulls will point to that. $SPX is also entering its seasonally strongest month, closing green 13 of the last 14 Julys but relief rallies are part of how bear markets work. They reset sentiment, squeeze shorts, then resume lower. Until macro clarity arrives and structure changes, this is a market to trade, not hold with conviction.