A Used Car in 2012 vs. That Same $8,000 in Bitcoin: The Most Painful 'What If' in Crypto

In the first half of 2012, $8,000 was enough for a decent used car. However, it could also pay for about 1,300 BTC. While the car might already be broken by now, those BTC, assuming anyone kept them, would probably be worth tens of millions of dollars.

At the start of 2012, BTC exchanged for $5-$7, the lowest price during January was $4.10, while the year-end price was approximately $13.51 (calendar.bitbo.io historical data). With an average price per coin of $6 for the first few months of 2012, the total amount of BTC for $8,000 is approximately 1,333 BTC.

As for cars, there were a lot of reliable used vehicles in the same price range in 2012 — a 2008 Honda Civic, a 2007 Toyota Camry, something that would help you go to work without any problems.

The number of BTC described above is no mistake, and it is one of the more striking examples from crypto history. With the current price level of BTC near $64,500, the total value of 1,333 BTC is equal to $86 million.

Those who decided to buy BTC most likely lost their private keys, got affected by the early hacks on cryptocurrency exchanges (for example, the Linode hack of 2012), or simply sold after the price doubled, feeling like geniuses.

This is the survivorship bias in action for every such story. As we always get information from those few people who held until the end, there are many more people who bought BTC at $6, sold at $30, and were happy about the 5x return. Their stories do not make the news.

So, it is not about "you should have bought BTC in 2012". Everything looks clear in hindsight. The idea behind this article is the unrecognizability of the asymmetric opportunity in its own time and the confidence of the crowd right before the reality proved them wrong.

What would you have bought in 2012 if you had $8,000 sitting around — be honest?