JPMorgan says Tesla could make $203 billion in revenue by 2030. Sounds impressive. But let’s look at the numbers. Tesla made about $97 billion in revenue in 2024, almost the same as 2023. In Q1 2025, revenue fell 9%, and car sales dropped 20%. To reach $203 billion by 2030, Tesla would need to more than double its revenue in just 5 years, even though growth is slowing right now. The forecast depends on businesses that are not fully operating yet: - Robotaxis - Optimus robots - AI licensing This is not really a car business prediction.
It depends on future projects becoming very successful. Could it happen? Yes. Is it the most likely outcome? Probably not. It looks more like a best-case scenario than a normal forecast. And when a bank suddenly raises its price target by 228%, it may not be getting ahead of the story.