💸 TODAY’S TRAP | Just one number was enough this afternoon for the market to change its view on the Fed. 172,000 jobs created in the US in May—twice the consensus—while the energy shock reignites inflation. Investors are now betting on a Fed that will raise rates (ATS). The US 10-year yield jumped from 4.47% to 4.53% in just minutes. Meanwhile, this same week, the ECB is preparing for its first rate hike in a year on Wednesday. The scenario of “rates will fall, just wait a bit” has collapsed on both sides in seven days. If your strategy relied on this scenario playing out to succeed, the problem isn’t the market—it’s that your plan was based on a forecast. A solid strategy doesn’t need to predict interest rates. It simply requires you to keep applying it even when the forecast fails. Source: BLS, ATS