
Canada just printed +88K jobs in May. Economists expected 10,000 but the headline needs context. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6% from 6.9% while participation held steady, so the improvement came from hiring rather than people dropping out of the labour force. Employment had fallen 112,000 in the first four months of 2026. May was the first significant gain since November. This release gave back most of what the year had taken. The composition is where it gets interesting: - Full-time work surged 154,000, nearly reversing the full-time losses from January through April. - Part-time fell 66,000. - Private sector did the real work at +56,000. Public sector added 20,000. Self employed was flat. Now let's look at wages. Average hourly wages for permanent employees grew 3.2% YoY. The prior month was 4.8%. The tariff effects are visible if you look deeper. The direct hit is in manufacturing, still down 44,000 since the tariffs landed in early 2025 even after a +15,000 bounce in May. StatCan links the weakness to tariff driven uncertainty. Steel, aluminum and autos are the main targets. Wholesale and retail trade is the second round story. It lost 35,000 jobs in May and has been trending lower since October. Those consumer facing sectors are absorbing the demand hit as the tariffs work through to prices. Next Wednesday is the Bank of Canada's rate decision. This is the last major data release before it. The mix of strong headline jobs and softening wages gives the Bank of Canada room to either cut or hold next week. How’s the job market feeling in your area right now?
